目录 自序？/ 001 第1章 深入开展经济统计指标的机理挖掘，夯实“国势研判”的专业基础 1.1 “国势研判”——提升国家治理能力需要坚实的经济统计基础 / 002 1.2 大格局：用经济统计思维帮助导出国势认知框架 / 006 1.3 国家是个利益单位，因而也是一个基本的测度单位 / 011 1.4 提防和减弱国势判断中“线性思维”的危害 / 019 1.5 经济统计常规分析大有用武空间 / 023 参考文献 / 029 附录1.1 东坡《题西林壁》与统计评价 / 029 附录1.2 “黄河如丝”与统计观察的格局和立场——也说“事实判断”与“价值判断” / 035 附录1.3 小份额与断链效应的故事 / 041 附录1.4 新时代中国特色统计学问题研究与国际统计标准的中国参与 / 042 第2章 G20增长线路与预期增长率的要素 2.1 GDP的测度陷阱 / 050 2.2 如何分析GDP的“三驾马车” / 060 2.3 G20的增长线路剖析与特征归纳 / 065 2.4 微观与宏观态势的关联：应该如何解读“微笑曲线”？ / 087 2.5 预期增长率所基于的要素及其顺序——“对标法”的经济统计学评论 / 094 参考文献 / 103 第3章 GDP不是新兴国家判断国势的合宜指标 3.1 NFI指标关系和理论分解框架 / 106 3.2 NFI在国家间分配的情况 / 111 3.3 解读NFI需要注意的指标口径问题 / 119 3.4 NFI分析对中国国力和国势研判的主要启示 / 127 参考文献 / 132 附录 全球主要赤字国NFI与GDP的变化趋势 / 134 第4章 国际环境责任的国别测度与判别 4.1 为什么要深入开展碳排放国别责任的测度？ / 151 4.2 已有碳排放国别责任相关研究的启示 / 159 4.3 与可持续发展测度相关的基本理念 / 169 4.4 构造碳排放国别责任的常规测度 / 177 4.5 碳排放国别责任测度的基础数据 / 182 4.6 深入开展环境污染和资源消耗国别责任的测度 / 217 参考文献 / 222 第5章 国际竞争格局演变中的“真实链位” 5.1 “真实链位论”——国际竞争格局的一个分析框架 / 228 5.2 技术进步、“阶梯式”分工与全球价值链发展 / 236 5.3 全球“链位”格局中的“偏态”分布 / 252 5.4 全球价值链“链位”竞争 / 260 参考文献 / 269 第6章 文明的测度——经济统计学视角的方法论批判与多维化处理 6.1 对莫里斯“文明的度量”的方法论思考 / 273 6.2 “文明等级”的相对比较——多维化处理的一种尝试 / 286 参考文献 / 343 第7章 “文明等级论”是西方对“他者”的文化暴力——国势研判的一个认知基准 7.1 研究和判断国势为什么要检讨“文明等级论”？ / 346 7.2 对“文明等级论”的批判 / 352 7.3 “文明等级论”与基于国势学视角对希腊史的再解读 / 385 7.4 不同文明间的多维度比较 / 391 参考文献 / 402 附录 从陶斯到纽约——有关“文化接触”的一些随想 / 403 第8章 “后领土殖民时代”的形式正义：列强争霸的副产品 8.1 “后殖民时代”还是“后领土殖民时代”？ / 425 8.2 去蔽：列强的所谓善举往往是其国际争霸的副产品 / 434 参考文献 / 455 第9章 全球独裁：“美国优先”的逻辑指向——“他国”自主发展最大的外部障碍 9.1 究竟应该如何解读《独立宣言》首句 / 458 9.2 “布兰戴斯悖境”与美国是否民主的判定 / 461 9.3 美国收入分配恶化的两个背景：资本贪婪之极致 / 464 9.4 美国政府不干预经济的神话——美国经济并非所谓纯市场经济 / 467 9.5 “机遇之地”的另一面——全球人才“撇奶皮”大战略 / 469 9.6 美国产业真的“脱实向虚”吗？ / 472 9.7 如何看待美国政治中的危机意识？ / 474 9.8 美国真是奉行“孤立主义”吗？ / 477 9.9 并不文明的争霸博弈：美国打压欧洲和日本 / 479 9.10 美国对“他国”的基本心态：顺或昌，逆必亡 / 484 9.11 美国究竟给世界带来了什么？ / 489 9.12 美国真的要搞“逆全球化”吗？ / 491 9.13 美国“巧实力”伤害他国更为致命 / 494 9.14 美国作为巅峰帝国的行为特征 / 496 参考文献 / 498 附录9.1 美国1990～2019年GDP、NFI与ANFI / 501 附录9.2 埃利斯岛和常春藤高校 / 503 附录9.3 弗洛斯特的心声 / 509 第10章 新兴经济体增长的两重性 10.1 注意新兴经济体增长的两重性 / 512 10.2 中国作为新兴经济体增长的两重性 / 521 10.3 如何在新兴经济体与发达国家矛盾格局中看待中美关系 / 533 参考文献 / 542 第11章 国家信用建设与经济统计的基础性贡献 11.1 国家信用建设、软实力与高质量发展 / 545 11.2 中国发展对世界的三大贡献——中国实践对国家信用的最好背书 / 548 11.3 高质量发展背景下应是“开放2.0” / 551 11.4 实施国家战略，抢建高水平的信用评级平台，减弱世界三大评级寡头即将带来的大冲击 / 555 11.5 应系统开展SDGs测度和中国进程监测研究 / 561 参考文献 / 571 索引 / 572 后记 / 576 Contents Preface / 001 CHAPTER 1？DEEPLY EXCAVATE THE MECHANISM OF STATISTICAL INDICATORS AND CONSOLIDATE THE PROFESSIONAL FOUNDATION OF “statustic STUDY AND JUDGMENT” 1.1？A Solid Economic Statistics Foundation is Needed to “Study and Judge Statustic” and Improve Country Governance Capacity？/ 002 1.2？General Pattern：Using Economic Statistics Thinking to Help Derive Cognitive Framework of Statustic？/ 006 1.3？Country is an Interest Unit and Therefore a Basic Unit of Measurement？/ 011 1.4？Beware of and Get Rid of Harm of “Linear Thinking” in Statustic Study and Judgment？/ 019 1.5？“Routine Analysis of Economic Statistics” has Great Potential？/ 023 References？/ 029 Appendix 1.1？“Written on the Wall at West Forest Temple” and Statistical Evaluation？/ 029 Appendix 1.2？“The Yellow River is Like Silk” and Pattern and Position of Statistical Observation—Also Known as “Fact Judgment” and “Value Judgment”？/ 035 Appendix 1.3？Story of Small Share and Chain Breaking Effect？/ 041 Appendix 1.4？Research on Statistics with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era and China’s Participation in International Statistical Standards？/ 042 CHAPTER 2？G20 GROWTH PATH DESCRIBED BY GDP AND FACTORS OF EXPECTED GROWTH RATE 2.1？Measurement Traps of GDP？/ 050 2.2？How to Analyze “Troika” of GDP？/ 060 2.3？G20 Growth Path and Characteristics Induction？/ 065 2.4？Relationship between Micro and Macro Trend: How to Interpret “Smile Curve”?？/ 087 2.5？Factors and Their Order based on Expected Growth Rate—Economic Statistics Review of “Benchmarking Method”？/ 094 References？/ 103 CHAPTER 3？GDP IS NOT A PROPER INDICATOR OF MEASUREMENT AND ECONOMIC POWER COMPARISON FOR EMERGING COUNTRIES: A JUDGEMENT FROM INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF NFI 3.1？Indicator Relationship and Theoretical Decomposition Framework of NFI？/ 106 3.2？Overview of the Distribution of NFI among Countries？/ 111 3.3？Interpreting the Caliber of NFI-Related Indicators？/ 119 3.4？Key Implications of NFI Analysis for China’s Statustic？/ 127 References？/ 132 Appendix？Trends in NFI and GDP of Major Global Deficit Countries？/ 134 CHAPTER 4？COUNTRY MEASUREMENT AND DISCRIMINATION OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY 4.1？Why Should We Carry Out in-depth Measurement of Country Responsibility for Carbon Emissions?？/ 151 4.2？Inspiration from Existing Research on Country Responsibility of Carbon Emissions？/ 159 4.3？Basic Concepts Related to the Measurement of Sustainable Development？/ 169 4.4？Construct Conventional Measures of Country Responsibility for Carbon Emissions？/ 177 4.5？Basic Data for Country Responsibility Measurement of Carbon Emissions？/ 182 4.6？Deeply Carry Out Measurement of Country Responsibility for Environmental Pollution and Resource Consumption？/ 217 References？/ 222 CHAPTER 5？“REAL CHAIN-POSITION” IN EVOLUTION OF INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION PATTERN 5.1？“Real Chain-position Theory”—An Analysis Framework of International Competition Pattern？/ 228 5.2？Technological Progress, “Laddering” Division of Labor and Development of Global Value Chain？/ 236 5.3？“Skewness” Distribution in Global “Chain-position” Pattern？/ 252 5.4？“Chain-position” Competition of Global Value Chain？/ 260 References？/ 269 CHAPTER 6？MEASURE OF CIVILIZATION—METHODOLOGY CRITICISM AND MULTIDIMENSIONAL TREATMENT FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS 6.1？Methodological Thinking on Morris’s “Measure of Civilization”？/ 273 6.2？Relative Comparison of “Civilized Hierarchy”—An Attempt of Multidimensional Processing？/ 286 References？/ 343 CHAPTER 7？“THE THEORY OF CIVILIZED HIERARCHY” IS CULTURAL VIOLENCE OF THE WEST AGAINST “OTHERS”—A COGNITIVE BENCHMARK PROBLEM IN STUDY AND JUDGMENT OF STATUSTICS 7.1？Why Should We Review “The Theory of Civilized Hierarchy” When Studying and Judging Statustic?？/ 346 7.2？Criticism of “The Theory of Civilized Hierarchy”？/ 352 7.3？“The Theory of Civilized Hierarchy” and Re-interpretation of Greek History from the Perspective of Statustics？/ 385 7.4？Multidimensional Comparison among Different Civilizations？/ 391 References？/ 402 Appendix From Taos to New York—Some Random Thoughts on “Culture Contact”？/ 403 CHAPTER 8？FORMAL JUSTICE IN “POST-TERRITORIAL COLONIAL ERA”：A BY-PRODUCT OF STRUGGLE FOR HEGEMONY 8.1？“Post-colonial Era” or “Post-territorial Colonial Era”?？/ 425 8.2？Off-cover: The So-called “good deeds” of Great Powers are often By-products of Their International Hegemony？/ 434 References？/ 455 CHAPTER 9？GLOBAL DICTATORSHIP: LOGICAL DIRECTION OF “AMERICA FIRST” —THE LARGEST EXTERNAL OBSTACLE TO INDEPENDENT DEVELOPMENT OF “OTHER COUNTRIES” 9.1？How to Interpret the First Sentence of “The Declaration of Independence”?？/ 458 9.2？“Brandeis Dilemma” and Judgment of Whether the United States is Democratic？/ 461 9.3？Two Backgrounds for Deterioration of Income Distribution in the United States: Acme of Capital Greed？/ 464 9.4？The Myth of the US Government’s Non-interference in the Economy—The American Economy is not a So-called Pure Market Economy？/ 467 9.5？The Other Side of “Land of Opportunity”—“Skimming” Strategy for Global Talents？/ 469 9.6？Is American Industry Really “Removing Reality to Virtuality”?？/ 472 9.7？How to Treat the Crisis Consciousness in American Politics?？/ 474 9.8？Is the United States Really Pursuing “Isolationism”?？/ 477 9.9？Uncivilized Hegemony Game: The United States Suppresses Europe and Japan？/ 479 9.10？The Basic Mentality of the United States towards “Other Countries”: Those Who Follow Me may Prosper, While Those Who Oppose Me will Perish？/ 484 9.11？What has the United States Brought to the World?？/ 489 9.12？Does the United States Really Want to Engage in “De-globalization”?？/ 491 9.13？America’s “Smart Power” is More Deadly to Other Countries？/ 494 9.14？Behavioral Characteristics of the United States as the Peak Empire？/ 496 References？/ 498 Appendix 9.1？US GDP and NFI from 1990 to 2019？/ 501 Appendix 9.2？Ellis Island and Ivy League Colleges？/ 503 Appendix 9.3？Frost’s Voice？/ 509 CHAPTER 10？DUALITY OF GROWTH IN EMERGING ECONOMIES 10.1？Pay Attention to Duality of Growth in Emerging Economies？/ 512 10.2？Duality of China’s Growth as an Emerging Economy？/ 521 10.3？How to Look at Sino-US Relations in the Contradiction between Emerging Economies and Developed Countries？/ 533 References？/ 542 CHAPTER 11？NATIONAL CREDIT CONSTRUCTION AND BASIC CONTRIBUTION OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS 11.1？National Credit Construction, Soft Power and High-quality Development？/ 545 11.2？Three Contributions of China’s Development to the World—The Largest Endorsement of China’s Practice to National Credit？/ 548 11.3？“Opening-up 2.0” Under the Background of High-quality Development？/ 551 11.4？Implement National Strategy, Build a High-level Credit Rating Platform, and Reduce Impact of the World’s Three Major Rating Oligarchs？/ 555 11.5？SDGs Measurement and China Process Monitoring Research Should be Carried Out Systematically？/ 561 References？/ 571 INDEX？/ 572 POSTSCRIPT？/ 576
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