目录 把科技自立自强作为国家发展的战略支撑 i 前言 xi 首字母缩略词 xv 报告摘要 xxi 第一部分 探索迈向碳中和之路 第一章 新气候目标导向下的中长期低碳转型总体思路 3 一、新气候目标提出的背景 3 二、实现碳达峰与碳中和面临的机遇和挑战 11 三、我国中长期绿色低碳转型的总体思路 17 第二章 构建迈向碳中和的低碳发展政策体系 25 一、我国低碳发展政策体系的历史演进 25 二、我国低碳发展政策体系存在的主要问题及形势判断 38 三、碳中和目标下完善我国低碳发展政策体系的建议 40 第三章 建立健全绿色低碳循环发展的经济体系 47 一、21世纪以来我国经济转型的战略取向 47 二、绿色低碳循环发展的经济转型与碳中和目标 51 三、推动经济体系向绿色低碳循环发展转型的对策建议 59 第四章 有序退煤的路线图及重点领域对策 68 一、退煤对我国实现碳达峰与碳中和目标的重要意义 68 二、电力部门有序降低煤电比例的挑战及对策 70 三、我国钢铁行业实现有序退煤的挑战与政策 74 四、工业与民用散煤的退出 80 五、中国海外煤电投资面临的问题与建议 83 第五章 交通运输领域碳达峰与低碳转型 90 一、 交通运输低碳发展现状 90 二、交通运输低碳发展面临的问题和挑战 98 三、交通运输领域碳达峰情景分析 102 四、交通运输领域低碳转型的政策建议 113 第六章 面向碳中和目标的汽车产业转型路径 120 一、我国汽车产业碳排放现状及构成 120 二、我国汽车产业实施节能减排的进展 126 三、国外汽车产业低碳发展战略与实践 131 四、我国汽车产业实现碳中和的总体思路 138 五、推动汽车产业实现碳中和的对策建议 139 第七章 推动基于自然的解决方案 145 一、基于自然的解决方案的内涵和边界 145 二、NbS与应对气候变化 148 三、NbS在我国应对气候变化领域的政策进展 157 四、NbS贡献碳中和目标的对策建议 167 第八章 完善我国适应气候变化的治理体系 173 一、当前及未来全球气候适应治理的焦点分析 173 二、气候适应治理的国际经验与启示 176 三、我国气候适应治理的现状、不足与机遇 181 四、完善我国气候适应治理体系的对策建议 186 第九章 加快建设气候投融资体系 190 一、气候投融资对实现应对气候变化目标的重要性 190 二、我国气候投融资体系的现状分析 195 三、新气候变化目标下我国气候投融资面临的问题 203 四、加快建设我国气候投融资体系的对策建议 206 第十章 新形势下的绿色复苏与低碳转型国际合作 213 一、国际格局和全球治理体系的变革 213 二、绿色复苏与低碳转型国际合作的新形势 217 三、重点国家和地区绿色低碳合作的现状和趋势 220 四、推动绿色复苏与低碳转型国际合作的思路和对策 231 第二部分 方法、影响和比较分 第十一章 实现碳中和目标的能源、经济和排放影响 237 一、研究方法 238 二、模拟结果 241 三、主要发现和建议 268 第十二章 中国实现碳达峰与碳中和等相关指标的国际比较分析 273 一、碳达峰与碳中和目标提出的国际背景 273 二、中国碳达峰与碳中和目标的可能实现路径 276 三、中国碳达峰与碳中和等相关指标的世界地位 278 四、中国能源消费相关指标国际比较 288 五、中国CO2排放相关指标国际比较 297 六、中国温室气体排放相关指标国际比较 309 七、中国低碳转型演化阶段国际比较 315 CONTENS Strengthen Science and Technology to Provide Strategic Support for China′s Development i Preface xi Abbreviations and Acronyms xv Executive Summary xxi Part One.Exploring Pathways towards Carbon Neutrality Chapter 1 Carbon Neutrality-oriented Approach to Mid-and Long-Term Low-Carbon Transition 3 1. Background of New Climate Goals 3 2. Opportunities and Challenges for Achieving Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality 11 3. General Approach of Mid- and Long-term Green and Low-carbon Transition 17 Chapter 2 Building a Policy System of Low-Carbon Development towards Carbon Neutrality 25 1. Historical Evolution of Low-carbon Development Policy System 25 2. Main Problems and Assessment of Low-carbon Development Policy System 38 3. Recommendations on Improving Low-carbon Development Policy System for Carbon Neutrality 40 Chapter 3 Enhancing an Economic System of Green，Low-carbon and Circular Economy Development 47 1. Strategic Orientation of Economic Transition in New Century 47 2. Transition of Economic System towards Green，Low-Carbon and Circular Economy Development for Carbon Neutrality 51 3. Recommendations on Enhancing Economic Transition with Green，Low-Carbon and Circular Economy Development 59 Chapter 4 Roadmap of Phasing out Coal orderly and Countermeasures in Key Areas 68 1. Signi.cance of Coal Phase-out for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality 68 2. Challenges of Phasing out Coal orderly and Countermeasures in Power Sector 70 3. Challenges and Countermeasures of Phasing out Coal orderly in Steel Sector 74 4. Coal Phase-out in Industrial and Civil Areas 80 5. Problems of China′s Overseas Coal Power Investment and Suggestions 83 Chapter 5 Carbon Emissions Peak and Low-carbon Transition in Transportation Sector 90 1. Current Status of Low-carbon Development in Transportation Sector 90 2. Key Problems and Challenges of Low-Carbon Development in Transportation Sector 98 3. Scenario Analysis of Peaking Carbon Emissions in Transportation Sector 102 4. Recommendations on Low-carbon Transition in Transportation Sector 113 Chapter 6 Roadmap of Automobile Industry towards Carbon Neutrality 120 1. Current Status and Composition of Carbon Emissions in Automobile Industry 120 2. Recent Progress of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in Automobile Industry 126 3. Low-carbon Development Strategies and Practices of Foreign Auto Industry 131 4. General Approach to Carbon Neutrality in Automobile Industry 138 5. Suggestions to Promote Carbon Neutrality in Automobile Industry 139 Chapter 7 Promote the Nature-based Solutions 145 1. Connotation and Boundary 145 2. NbS and Combating Climate Change 148 3. Policy Progress of NbS in Addressing Climate Change 157 4. Recommendations on Employing NbS for Carbon Neutrality 167 Chapter 8 Improving the Governance of Climate Adaptation 173 1. Focus Analysis of Improvement of Global Climate Adaptation Governance 173 2. International Experience and Enlightenment of Climate Adaptation Governance 176 3. Status，Gaps and Opportunities on Climate Adaptation Governance 181 4. Suggestions to Improve Climate Adaptation Governance in China 186 Chapter 9 Accelerating the Development of Climate Investment and Financing System 190 1. Importance of Climate Investment and Financing to Achieve the Goal of Addressing Climate Change 190 2. Status Analysis of Climate Investment and Financing System 195 3. Problems of Climate Investment and Financing for Carbon Peak and Neutrality 203 4. Suggestions on Accelerating the Development of Climate Investment and Financing System 206 Chapter 10 International Cooperation on Green Recovery and Low-Carbon Transition 213 1. Changes in International Strategic Landscape and Global Governance System 213 2. New Situation of International Cooperation in Green Recovery and Low-carbon Transition 217 3. Status and Trends of Green and Low-carbon Cooperation with Key Countries and Regions 220 4. Approaches and Countermeasures to Promote the International Cooperation on Green Recovery and Low-carbon Transition 231 Part Two.Methodology,Impacts and Comparative Analysis Chapter 11 Energy-Economy-Emissions Impact of Achieving Carbon Neutrality 237 1. Methodology 238 2. Simulation Results 241 3. Key Observations and Suggestions 268 Chapter 12 International Comparative Analysis of China′s Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Indicators 273 1. International Background of China′s Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Target 273 2. Possible Pathways to Achieve Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality 276 3. Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Indicators 278 4. Related Indexes of Energy Consumption 288 5. Related Indexes of CO2 Emissions 297 6. Related Indicators of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 309 7. Low-Carbon Transition and Evolution Stage 315
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