Contents Chapter1 Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions 1.1 Characteristics of world energy use 1.1.1 Energy is an important driver of socio-economic development 1.1.2 World energy intensity decreases continually with great difference from country to country 1.1.3 Differences of energy consumption distribution among sectors in different development phases 1.1.4 Fossil energy dominates world energy consumption structure 1.1.5 Uneven energy consumption 1.2 Fossil energy use and climate change 1.2.1 Global warming directly threats the human environment 1.2.2 Industrial production is the major cause of global climate change 1.2.3 CO2 emissions caused by fossil fuels combustion are the main sources of greenhouse gases 1.3 Basic characteristics of world CO2 emissions 1.3.1 CO2 emissions increase continually 1.3.2 Electricity,industry and transportation sectors account for 60%—70% emissions of total CO2 emissions 1.3.3 Industrialized countries account for 80% of world accumulated CO2 emissions 1.4 CO2 emissions mitigation and sustainable development 1.4.1 CO2 emissions and socio-economic development 1.4.2 CO2 emissions mitigation has become one of the new elements of sustainable development 1.4.3 Challenges and opportunities of CO2 emission abatement for China References Chapter2 Analysis of Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in China 2.1 Characteristics of energy consumption in China 2.1.1 Huge energy consumption with high growth rate 2.1.2 Low carbon energy grows fast in recent years while small inproportion 2.1.3 Big difference in energy structure with certain potential 2.1.4 Low energy effciency and big differences among regions 2.2 Overview of CO2 emissions in China 2.2.1 CO2 emissions grow fast while accumulated emission is lower than that of major developed countries 2.2.2 CO2 emissions per capita is lower than the level in developed countries and worldwide average 2.2.3 CO2 emission intensity is higher than world average while decreases fast 2.3 Study on characteristics of CO2 emissions from primary energy consumption in China 2.3.1 CO2 emissions and its intensity during 19802005 2.3.2 Method for studying CO2 emission change 2.3.3 Structure decomposition analysis on CO2 emission intensity 2.3.4 Structure decomposition analysis on CO2 emissions 2.4 Conclusion References Chapter3 Study on Impact Factors of CO2 Emissions under different Economic Development Levels 3.1 Population,economy,technology and CO2 emissions 3.1.1 Change of CO2 emissions 3.1.2 Change of population 3.1.3 Change of GDP per capita 3.1.4 Change of energy intensity 3.2 Method for analysis 3.2.1 STIRPAT Model 3.2.2 Data sources 3.3 Impact analysis of population,economy and technology on CO2 emissions 3.4 Conclusion References Chapter4 Evolution Characteristics of CO2 Emissions in Carbon-intensive Sectors in China 4.1 Study on characteristics of CO2 emissions change in electricity sector 4.1.1 Current status of CO2 emissions in electricity sector 4.1.2 Method for analyzing CO2 emission change in electricity sector 4.1.3 Structure decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions coeffcient in electricity production 4.1.4 Structure decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions coeffcient in electricity consumption 4.2 Study on characteristics of CO2 emission change from final energy use 4.2.1 Method for analysis 4.2.2 CO2 emission intensity in material production sector 4.2.3 CO2 emissions in material production sector 4.3 Study on characteristics of CO2 emissions change from final energy use in industry sector 4.3.1 Current status of CO2 emissions in industry sector 4.3.2 Method for analysis 4.3.3 Analysis of CO2 emissions change in industry sector 4.4 Conclusion References Chapter5 Impacts of Household Consumption and Export Trade on CO2 Emissions 5.1 Impact of household consumption on CO2 emissions 5.1.1 Current household consumption in urban and rural areas 5.1.2 Methodology: Input-Output Model 5.1.3 CO2 emissions of household consumption 5.1.4 Impact factors of household CO2 emissions 5.1.5 Urban and rural household CO2 emissions under different income levels 5.2 Impact of export trade on CO2 emissions 5.2.1 Current export trade status of China 5.2.2 CO2 emissions embodied in exports 5.2.3 Impact factors of CO2 emissions embodied in export trade 5.3 Conclusion References Chapter6 Study on Regional CO2 Emissions Change in China 6.1 Comparison analysis of regional CO2 emissions 6.1.1 Comparison analysis of regional total CO2 emissions 6.1.2 Comparison analysis of regional per capita CO2 emissions 6.1.3 Comparison analysis of regional CO2 emission intensity 6.1.4 Regional electrical CO2 emission coeffcient analysis 6.2 Method for analysis of regional CO2 emissions variation 6.3 Analysis of regional CO2 emissions during 19972005 6.3.1 Impact from economic growth on regional CO2 emissions 6.3.2 Impact from industrial structure on regional CO2 emission 6.3.3 Impact from energy intensity on regional CO2 emissions 6.3.4 Impact from CO2 emission coeffcient on regional CO2 emissions 6.4 Conclusion References Chapter7 CO2 Emission Abatement Technology and Impact Analysis 7.1 Major CO2 emission abatement technologies 7.1.1 Renewable energy technology 7.1.2 Advanced power generation technologies 7.1.3 Carbon capture and storage technology 7.1.4 Energy conservation technologies 7.2 Analysis of CO2 emission abatement capability of technologies 7.2.1 Renewable energy could mitigate CO2 emissions effectively with long term abatement potential 7.2.2 IGCC and NGCC now are in commercial demonstration and may accomplish the overall optimization of energy conservation and emission reduction 7.2.3 CCS may reach near zero emission 7.3 Socio-economic impact analysis of renewable electricity 7.3.1 China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis Model(CEEPA) 7.3.2 Analysis of socio-economic impact of renewable electricity 7.4 Conclusion References Chapter8 Simulations of CO2 Mitigation Policies 8.1 Major mitigation policies 8.2 Study on carbon taxation policy 8.2.1 Setting of carbon tax schemes 8.2.2 Analysis the effects of carbon tax policy 8.2.3 Discussion of carbon tax policy 8.3 Study on carbon pricing mechanism based on bilateral trading model 8.3.1 Bilateral trading model 8.3.2 Trading scenarios 8.3.3 Comparison and analysis of carbon pricing mechanism 8.4 Conclusion References Chapter9 International Carbon Market and Its Impacts on CO2 Emission Abatement 9.1 International carbon market 9.1.1 Overview of quota based market 9.1.2 Overview of project based market 9.2 Relationship between EU carbon market and energy price 9.2.1 Relationship between carbon prices and energy prices 9.2.2 Model of cointegrating relationship test between carbon prices and energy prices 9.2.3 Analysis of interactions between carbon prices and energy prices 9.3 Liquidity analysis of EU carbon market 9.3.1 Models for market liquidity study 9.3.2 Data sources and definitions 9.3.3 Empirical results and discussions 9.4 Socio-economic impacts analysis of CDM projects in China 9.4.1 CEEPA model with CERs prices 9.4.2 Macro impacts of renewable electricity CDM project 9.4.3 Impacts of renewable electricity CDM project on energy intensive sectors and energy sectors 9.4.4 Regional impacts of CDM projects 9.5 Challenges of international carbon market development 9.5.1 Uncertainty of long-term development of international carbon market 9.5.2 Challenges of the development of EU carbon market 9.5.3 Challenges of the development of CDM market 9.6 Conclusion References Chapter10 Outlook of CO2 Abatement in China 10.1 Main driving forces of CO2 emissions in the procedure of urbanization and industrialization in China 10.1.1 Economic growth 10.1.2 Population growth 10.1.3 Urbanization level 10.1.4 Technology advance 10.2 China\'s future CO2 emissions 10.2.1 Total emissions continue growing 10.2.2 Per capita CO2 emission will continually increase while still lower than the current level of developed countries 10.2.3 CO2 emissions in Central China occupies the largest share 10.2.4 Obvious difference existing among CO2 emission intensities 10.2.5 Huge shifting emission among regions 10.3 Pathway of CO2 abatement in China 10.3.1 Optimizing economic structure and energy structure as the long-term strategy of CO2 abatement 10.3.2 Guiding household consumption style to reduce CO2 emissions 10.3.3 Improving structure of international trade to lower embedded CO2 emissions 10.3.4 Strengthening self-innovation of technology to mitigate CO2 emissions effectively 10.3.5 Balancing positive and negative impacts of carbon tax 10.3.6 Participating and improving international carbon market actively 10.4 Policy implications 10.4.1 Guiding GHG mitigation in the national energy strategy 10.4.2 Accelerating the R & D of low carbon technologies 10.4.3 Optimizing the industrial structure and energy consumption structure 10.4.4 Accelerating the import of advanced energy technologies through international mechanism 10.4.5 Strengthening socio-economic impacts analysis of mitigation policies 10.4.6 Enhancing the propaganda of the efforts on GHG mitigation References List of Figures Figure 1.1 Global economic outputs and energy consumption during 19732007 Figure 1.2 Energy intensities of the world and major countries during 19732006 Figure 1.3 World energy consumption structure in 1973 and 2005 Figure 1.4 Energy consumption per capita of OECD countries in 2006 Figure 1.5 Changes of CO2 concentration and temperature during 19592004 Figure 1.6 Global GHG emissions shares of different sectors in 2004 Figure 1.7 Global GHG emissions in 2004 Figure 1.8 Global CO2 emissions during the year of 17512004 Figure 1.9 Global CO2 emissions of different sectors during 19702004 Figure 1.10 World and major industrialized countries\' energy consumption and CO2 emissions during 19712004 Figure 1.11 World major regions and countries\' CO2 emissions and their shares during 19002004 Figure 1.12 World major regions and countries\' CO2 emissions shares in 2004 Figure 1.13 A comparison between world CO2 emissions and real GDP per capita Figure 1.14 A comparison between CO2 emissions and real GDP per capita in the United States Figure 1.15 A comparison between CO2 emissions and real GDP per capita in Japan Figure 1.16 A comparison between CO2 emissions and real GDP per capita in China Figure 1.17 A comparison between CO2 emissions and real GDP per capita in India Figure 2.1 China\'s energy consumption and its structure during 19532007 Figure 2.2 China\'s energy flow in 2005 Figure 2.3 China\'s energy consumption per unit of GDP during 19532007 Figure 2.4 Regional energy consumption per unit of GDP and GDP per capita in 2006 Figure 2.5 China\'s CO2 emission sources during 19502004 Figure 2.6 Share of China\'s CO2 emissions in the world of the cement industry Figure 2.7 Shares of China,US,West Europe\'s CO2 emissions in the world during 1910—2004 Figure 2.8 Shares of accumulated CO2 emissions of major countries and regions Figure 2.9 Contributions from the CO2 emissions increase of major regions and countries to world emission increase in each decade from 1800 to 2004 Figure 2.10 Shares of major regions and countries\' CO2 emissions in the world with their GDP per capita between USD 5003500 Figure 2.11 CO2 emissions per capita of the major regions and countries during 19602004 Figure 2.12 CO2 emissions per capita of different regions and countries with their GDP per capita between USD 5003500 Figure 2.13 CO2 emission intensities of major countries during 19602004 Figure 2.14 Comparison of CO2 emission intensities of different countries Figure 2.15 Changes of the primary energy consumption,CO2 emissions,and CO2 emission intensity of China in 1980—2005 Figure 2.16 Impacts from energy structure and energy intensity on CO2 emission intensity of primary energy consumption in 19802005 Figure 2.17 Impacts from China\'s energy structure and primary energy intensity on CO2 emission intensity of primary energy consumption in 19802005 Figure 2.18 Impacts from population,GDP per capita,primary energy intensity,and energy consumption structure on CO2 emissions Figure 2.19 Impacts of population,GDP per capita,energy structure,and energy intensity on China\'s CO2 emissions Figure 3.1 CO2 emissions of countries with different income levels Figure 3.2 Populations of countries with different income levels Figure 3.3 Real GDP per capita of countries with different income levels Figure 3.4 Energy intensities of countries with different income levels Figure 3.5 The VIP of population Figure 3.6 The VIP of urbanization Figure 3.7 The VIP of the percentage of population of aged 1564 Figure 3.8 VIP value of real GDP per capita Figure 3.9 The VIP of energy consumption per unit of GDP Figure 3.10 VIP value of China\'s population,real GDP per capita,and energy consumption per unit of GDP Figure 3.11 VIP value of world population,GDP per capita,and energy consumption per unit of GDP Figure 4.1 China\'s electricity generation in 19802005 Figure 4.2 CO2 emissions of China\'s power generation Figure 4.3 Change of CO2 emission coeffcients of China\'s power generation and consumption during 19802005 Figure 4.4 Impacts of different factors on CO2 emissions from power generation during 19802005 Figure 4.5 Impacts of different factors on CO2 emission coeffcient of power generation Figure 4.6 Impacts of different factors on CO2 emission coeffcient of power supply Figure 4.7 Change of CO2 emission coeffcient of power consumption of China in 19802005 Figure 4.8 Impacts of different energy consumptions of power generation on CO2 emission coeffcient Figure 4.9 International comparison of the CO2 emission coeffcient of power and heat Figure 4.10 Sectional CO2 emissions of China in 1990 and 2005 Figure 4.11 Changes of CO2 emissions and its intensity of material production sectors in China in 19802005 Figure 4.12 Impacts of factors on the CO2 emissions of material production sectors during 19802005 Figure 4.13 Impacts of energy intensity of material production sectors on the CO2 emission intensity during 19802005 Figure 4.14 CO2 emissions of China\'s three industries in 19812005 Figure 4.15 Impacts of energy intensity of material production sectors in China on the CO2 emissions during 19802005 Figure 4.16 Change of the shares of secondary industry in the end use of energy,coal,power and GDP Figure 4.17 Final energy use and CO2 emissions of the secondary industry during 19982005 Figure 4.18 Impacts of the economic development of industry and energy intensity change on CO2 emissions of industry during 19982005 Figure 4.19 Impacts of the industry structure,CO2 emission coeffcient,and consumption structure of final energy use on CO2 emissions of industry Figure 4.20 CO2 emissions per unit of final energy use in industrial sectors over the period 19982005 Figure 5.1 Change of urban and rural income per capita during 19852005 Figure 5.2 Change of urban and rural consumption expenditure during 19852005 Figure 5.3 Change of urban consumption mode in China during 19922005 Figure 5.4 Change of rural consumption mode in China during 19932005 Figure 5.5 Chinese urban consumption expenditure per capita of different income level in 2002 Figure 5.6 Chinese rural consumption expenditure per capita of different income levels in 2002 Figure 5.7 Impacts of different factors on household CO2 emissions Figure 5.8 Indirect CO2 emissions per capita of urban households with different income levels in China 2002 Figure 5.9 Indirect CO2 emissions per capita of rural households with different income levels in China 2002 Figure 5.10 Changes of commodity export in China during 19902005 Figure 5.11 Classi¯cation of commodity export in China during 19902005 Figure 5.12 Commodity export of different sectors in 1997 and 2005 Figure 5.13 Impacts of different factors on the embodied CO2 emissions in commodity export in China during 19972005 Figure 6.1 Changes of CO2 emissions in 30 provinces of China in 1997 and 2005 Figure 6.2 CO2 emissions per capita of different provinces in 1997 and 2005 Figure 6.3 CO2 emission intensity of different provinces in 1997 and 2005 Figure 6.4 Changes of CO2 emission coeffcient of power generation in different provinces in 1997 and 2005 Figure 6.5 Changes of CO2 emissions of 28 provinces during 19972005 Figure 6.6 Impacts from economic development on CO2 emissions of different provinces during 19972005 Figure 6.7 Impacts from industrial structure change on CO2 emissions of different provinces during 19972005 Figure 6.8 Impacts from energy intensity change on CO2 emissions of 28 provinces during 19972005 Figure 6.9 Energy intensity changes of three industries of different provinces during 19972005 Figure 6.10 Impacts of CO2 emission coeffcient on CO2 emissions of 28 provinces during 19972005 Figure 7.1 Cost comparison between coal and gas power plants Figure 7.2 CO2 emissions of different fossil fuel power plants Figure 7.3 Global CO2 emissions in the case of with and without CCS Figure 7.4 Decomposition of electric power sector Figure 7.5 Impacts of different substitution of power generation with renewable energy on the outputs of five energy-intensive sectors Figure 7.6 Impacts of different substitution of power generation with renewable energy on the prices of five energy-intensive sectors Figure 8.1 Impacts of different carbon tax schemes on sectoral output of energy- and trade-intensive sectors in the 10% reduction case Figure 8.2 Impacts of different carbon tax schemes on sectoral output price of energy- and trade-intensive sectors in the 10% reduction case Figure 8.3 Impacts of different carbon tax schemes on sectoral export of energy- and trade-intensive sectors in the 10% reduction case Figure 8.4 Impacts of different carbon tax schemes on sectoral profit of energy- and trade-intensive sectors in the 10% reduction case Figure 8.5 Impacts of different carbon tax schemes on sectoral CO2 emissions of energy- and trade-intensive sectors in the 10% reduction case Figure 8.6 Benefits of China from trade with different developed countries under price floor policy Figure 9.1 The carbon Market under the Kyoto Protocol Rules Figure 9.2 The Transaction Volumes of EU EUAs Figure 9.3 Number of registered CDM projects Figure 9.4 Registered CERs projects by region Figure 9.5 Registered CERs by sector Figure 9.6 Registered projects by Investor Parties Figure 9.7 Observed prices for project-based transactions in 2005 and 2006 Figure 9.8 Registered CERs in China by sector Figure 9.9 Registered CERs in India by sector Figure 9.10 The carbon prices of ECX(April 22,2005—December 29,2006) Figure 9.11 The logarithm prices of energy-carbon contracts in 2006 Figure 9.12 Trends of carbon prices in ECX(April 22,2005—September 28,2007) Figure 9.13 Monthly Martin liquidity ratios of different carbon contracts Figure 9.14 Liquidity expiration effects of Dec05 and Dec06 contracts Figure 9.15 Impacts of renewable power generation CDM projects on GDP Figure 9.16 Impacts of renewable power generation CDM projects on total investment Figure 9.17 Impacts of renewable power generation CDM projects on totalconsumption Figure 9.18 Impacts of renewable power generation CDM projects on CO2 emissions Figure 9.19 Impacts of renewable electricity CDM projects on outputs of energy intensive sectors and energy production sectors Figure 9.20 Impacts of renewable electricity CDM projects on product prices of energy intensive sectors and energy production sectors Figure 10.1 Map of China with the eight economic regions Figure 10.2 Total CO2 emissions of China in 2020 and 2030 under different scenarios Figure 10.3 Regional per capita CO2 emissions for year 2020 Figure 10.4 Regional per capita CO2 emissions for year 2030 Figure 10.5 Regional CO2 emissions for year 2020 Figure 10.6 Regional CO2 emissions for year 2030 Figure 10.7 Regional CO2 emission intensity for year 2020 Figure 10.8 Regional CO2 emission intensity for year 2030 Figure 10.9 Relative errors between CO2 emissions driven by each region and those generated by that region for year 2020 Figure 10.10 Relative errors between CO2 emissions driven by each region and those generated by that region for year 2030 List of Tables Table 1.1 GDP and energy consumption of some countries Table 2.1 Economic outputs and energy consumption in China during 19532007 Table 2.2 Energy consumption per product of major energy intensive products in China during 19802005 Table 2.3 Energy consumption per value added of different industries in 2006 Table 3.1 Definition of variables in the model Table 3.2 Correlation coeffcients between CO2 emissions,population,real GDP per capita and technology in China Table 3.3 Correlation coeffcients between CO2 emissions,population,real GDP per capita and technology in high income countries Table 3.4 Correlation coeffcients between CO2 emissions,population,real GDP per capita and technology in upper middle income countries Table 3.5 Correlation coeffcients between CO2 emissions,population,real GDP per capita and technology in lower middle income countries Table 3.6 Correlation coeffcients between CO2 emissions,population,real GDP per capita and technology in low income countries Table 3.7 Correlation coeffcients between CO2 emissions,population,real GDP per capita and technology of the world Table 3.8 Impacts of population,capital,technology on CO2 emissions in 1975—2003 Table 4.1 CO2 emissions of electricity consumption in China 2020 Table 4.2 Impacts of different factors on material production sectors\' CO2 emissions in 19802005 Table 4.3 Changes of CO2 emissions in material production sectors in China during 19802005 Table 4.4 Impact of different factors on CO2 emissions of industrial sectors in China Table 4.5 Impacts of final energy use structure shift of industry sector on CO2 emissions Table 5.1 Direct and indirect impacts of urban and rural household on CO2 emissions during 19922002 Table 5.2 Indirect CO2 emissions of households with different consumption expenditure in China Table 5.3 Indirect CO2 emissions of household per unit money consumption expenditure in China Table 5.4 Consumption and energy intensity of different sectors of urban and rural household in 1997 Table 5.5 Consumption and energy intensity on different sectors of urban and rural household in 2002 Table 5.6 Final consumption of urban and rural household during 19922002 Table 5.7 Comparison of per capita expenditure and indirect CO2 emissions between urban highest income households and other level income households Table 5.8 Impacts of products export on CO2 emissions in China 1997 and 2002 Table 5.9 CO2 emissions embodied in products exports of different sectors in 1997 and 2002 Table 5.10 CO2 emissions embodied in unit monetary products export of different sectors Table 6.1 Factors in°uencing China\'s CO2 emissions during 19972005 Table 7.1 Economic parameters of power generation of different biomass energies Table 7.2 Comparison between a domestic coal power plant and IGCC demonstration plant Table 7.3 Storage capacity of different storage pools Table 7.4 Statistics of carbon dioxide capture and storage projects Table 7.5 Comparison of cost between carbon mitigation with fossil fuel, renewable energy and nuclear energy technology Table 7.6 CO2 mitigation potential of major renewable energy in 2010 and 2020 Table 7.7 Comparison of mitigation potential and costs between different generation technologies with and without CCS Table 7.8 variation of technological and economic indicators of carbon capture techniques of new plants based on present technology Table 7.9 Impacts of different renewable electricity schemes Table 7.10 Impacts of different alternative schemes on energy consumption and CO2 emissions of energy intensive sectors Table 8.1 Description of carbon tax schemes Table 8.2 Macroeconomic impacts of different carbon tax schemes Table 8.3 Impacts of different carbon tax schemes on various savings Table 8.4 Sectoral net-tax payment in the 10% reduction case Table 8.5 Carbon tax rate in different reduction case under scheme S4 Table 8.6 Issued CDM projects and CERs Table 8.7 Carbon mitigation indicators of US,EU and Japan Table 8.8 Scenarios Table 8.9 Emission mitigation targets of developed countries and mitigation costs under different scenarios Table 8.10 Bilateral trade prices in without price bounding Table 8.11 Benefits of China without price bounding Table 8.12 Trade price under price floor policy Table 8.13 Benefits of China under price floor policy Table 9.1 Carbon market: volumes and values in 20052006 Table 9.2 Key characteristics of different emissions trading schemes Table 9.3 Registered CDM projects by sector Table 9.4 Direct and indirect effects on sustainable development caused by CDM projects Table 9.5 Variable selection and definition Table 9.6 Pearson correlation coeffcients between carbon price and energy prices Table 9.7 ADF unit root test results of time series Table 9.8 Cointegration test between carbon prices and electricity prices Table 9.9 Granger causality test between carbon price and electricity prices Table 9.10 Cointegration test between carbon prices and crude oil prices Table 9.11 Granger causality test between carbon prices and crude oil prices Table 9.12 Cointegration test between carbon prices and natural gas prices Table 9.13 Granger causality test between carbon prices and gas prices Table 9.14 Cointegration test between carbon prices and coal prices Table 9.15 Cointegration test between carbon prices and coal prices Table 9.16 Johansen cointegration test Table 9.17 Standardized cointegration coeffcients Table 9.18 Daily Martin liquidity ratios of different carbon contracts by year Table 9.19 Daily Martin liquidity ratios of different carbon contracts by weekday Table 9.20 Kruskal-Wallis Test for the day-of-the-week effect of liquidity Table 10.1 Scenarios Table 10.2 Forecast of China\'s rate of economic growth in the coming 20 years Table 10.3 Forecast of regional population development Table 10.4 Forecast of regional urbanization rate Table 10.5 Improvement potential of sectoral final energy use effciency Table 10.6 CO2 emission intensity in different scenarios
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