目录 第一章 导论 1 第一节 生育政策调整的实质与意义 2 第二节 生育政策调整的影响及其研究 4 第三节 生育政策调整研究的若干主题 7 第四节 生育政策调整研究的思路与方法 11 第五节 本书的结构与基本内容 16 上篇 生育意愿研究的反思与二孩政策效果评价 第二章 中国人的生育意愿：我们实际上知道多少? 27 第一节 生育政策调整的效果质疑生育意愿调查结果 27 第二节 三十多年来我们在如何测量生育意愿 30 第三节 两种测量方式的效度如何 35 第四节 两条路径的相对效果：谁离人们的生育意愿更远 41 第五节 总结与讨论 47 第三章 生育意愿调查的对象选择及其后果 51 第一节 现有的生育意愿调查都在调查谁 52 第二节 调查对象的年龄 56 第三节 调查对象的性别 59 第四节 调查对象的政策身份 61 第五节 调查对象与调查目的 63 第六节 小结 64 第四章 生育意愿调查与“单独二孩”政策实施效果评价 66 第一节 两种不同评价的证据与分析逻辑 67 第二节 与政策效果评价相关的几个数字 72 第三节 “单独二孩”政策实施效果评价的进一步探讨 80 第五章 “全面二孩”生育政策实施效果究竟如何 83 第一节 政府相关部门对政策效果的评价 84 第二节 学术界对政策效果的分析和评价 87 第三节 基于2016~2019年二孩出生人口数量的分析与评价 91 第四节 “全面二孩”政策效果评价的进一步思考 95 中篇 育龄人口二孩生育意愿及其影响因素 第六章 政策潜在人口的结构特征与二孩生育意愿 103 第一节 分析政策潜在人口问题的意义 103 第二节 分析所依据的数据 104 第三节 生育政策潜在人口的重要结构：城乡与年龄 106 第四节 政策潜在人口的二孩生育意愿 111 第五节 总结与讨论 116 第七章 城市育龄人群的年龄结构与二孩生育意愿 118 第一节 二孩生育意愿文献回顾 119 第二节 研究样本与数据 122 第三节 三类育龄女性的比重及年龄结构 123 第四节 三类育龄人群的二孩生育意愿 126 第五节 三类育龄人群的年龄结构与生育意愿的交互分析 127 第六节 总结与讨论 129 第八章 城市两类育龄人群二孩生育意愿的影响因素 133 第一节 研究背景与问题 133 第二节 育龄人群二孩生育意愿影响因素的文献回顾 135 第三节 单独一孩、双独一孩育龄人群二孩生育意愿的影响因素 139 第四节 双非一孩育龄人群二孩生育意愿的影响因素 142 第五节 研究结论与讨论 144 第九章 “假设的”与“现实的”二孩生育意愿 147 第一节 研究背景与问题 147 第二节 相关文献的回顾 148 第三节 研究设计与数据来源 152 第四节 研究结果与分析 156 第五节 研究结论与相关问题讨论 160 第十章 城市两代父母生育意愿的变迁 164 第一节 研究问题与相关文献回顾 164 第二节 研究设计与资料来源 167 第三节 研究结果与分析 172 第四节 研究结论与相关问题讨论 180 第十一章 城市一孩育龄人群的二孩生育动机 186 第一节 研究背景与问题 186 第二节 相关文献回顾 187 第三节 数据来源与变量测量 192 第四节 一般生育动机的现有研究结果 195 第五节 城市一孩育龄人群的二孩生育动机分析 197 第六节 研究结论与讨论 199 第十二章 城市一孩育龄人群为什么不生二孩 202 第一节 研究背景与问题 202 第二节 相关文献回顾 203 第三节 样本与数据 207 第四节 育龄人群不想生育二孩的原因分析 209 第五节 研究结论与讨论 212 第十三章 城市一孩育龄人群的生育抉择及影响因素 217 第一节 研究背景与问题 217 第二节 文献回顾与数据说明 219 第三节 提出二孩生育申请者的比例及其特征 221 第四节 未申请者为什么没有提出申请 223 第五节 育龄人群是否提出二孩生育申请的相关因素 225 第六节 研究结论与讨论 227 第十四章 二孩生育中从众行为的可能性及其影响 232 第一节 研究问题与文献回顾 232 第二节 数据与方法 235 第三节 二孩生育中发生从众行为的可能性 238 第四节 二孩生育中发生从众行为的某些特征 239 第五节 从众行为对二孩生育意愿的可能影响 240 第六节 研究结论与讨论 241 第十五章 影响育龄人群二孩生育意愿的因素究竟是什么 244 第一节 现有研究结果概览 245 第二节 对现有研究结果的解析和判断 249 第三节 研究的结论与值得探讨的问题 255 下篇 从“独生子女时代”向“后独生子女时代”转变 第十六章 独生子女政策背景中的“四二一”问题 261 第一节 “四二一”：一个似是而非的概念 263 第二节 “四二一”问题的实质究竟是什么 268 第三节 “四二一”问题的社会影响 273 第十七章 生育政策调整与中国家庭模式的变化 280 第一节 独生子女政策下的中国家庭 281 第二节 “全面二孩”政策与家庭生育选择 283 第三节 “后独生子女时代”与独生子女家庭问题 285 第四节 “全面二孩”政策与中国家庭变迁 287 第十八章 二孩生育政策对家庭亲子关系的影响 293 第一节 人的社会化：理解新的家庭关系的重要视角 294 第二节 面对两个孩子：一孩父母继续社会化的新内容 296 第三节 面对弟弟妹妹：家庭中第一个孩子的社会化内容 301 第四节 “单独二孩”家庭亲子社会化对“全面二孩”的启示 304 第十九章 “后独生子女时代”的独生子女问题 306 第一节 “独生子女时代”中的独生子女问题 307 第二节 已终结的政策与并未消失的人口 310 第三节 探讨“后独生子女时代”独生子女问题的三种视角 314 第四节 “后独生子女时代”中的几种独生子女问题 317 第二十章 生两个孩子：中国社会的又一场生育革命 324 第一节 只生一个孩子：史无前例的生育革命 324 第二节 生两个孩子：新的生育革命的目标及其特征 332 第三节 “单独二孩”政策实施初期社会反应的启示 335 第四节 大力培育“生两个孩子”的生育文化 339 第二十一章 放开三孩：从单一的人口政策到全面的社会政策 344 第一节 以人民为中心，促进人口与社会可持续发展 345 第二节 以《决定》为契机，努力提高二孩及三孩的生育意愿 350 第三节 建设新的生育文化是对各种配套支持措施的重要补充 353 第四节 新的生育文化建设中的两个重要方面 358 参考文献 362 索引 371 后记 376 Contents Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 The Essence and Significance of Birth Policy Adjustment 2 1.2 The Influence of Birth Policy Adjustment and Researches on It 4 1.3 Themes on Birth Policy Adjustment Research 7 1.4 Mentality and the Methods of Birth Policy Adjustment Research 11 1.5 The Structure and Content of This Book 16 Part Ⅰ Refection on Fertility Willingness Studies and Evaluation on the Effects of Two-Child Policy Chapter 2 Chinese Fertility Willingness: How Much Do We Actually Know 27 2.1 The Results of Fertility Willingness Studies Being Questioned by the Effects of Birth Policy Adjustment 27 2.2 How We Have Measured Fertility Willingness in Recent 30 Plus Years 30 2.3 Validity of Two Measuring Methods 35 2.4 The Relative Effects of Two Paths of Measuring: Which Is Further Away from People’s Fertility Willingness 41 2.5 Summary and Discussion 47 Chapter 3 Selections of Objects of Fertility Willingness Survey and the Consequences 51 3.1 Who Are the Respondents of Current Fertility Willingness Survey? 52 3.2 Ages of the Respondents 56 3.3 Genders of the Respondents 59 3.4 Policy Identity of the Respondents 61 3.5 Objects and Purposes of Survey 63 3.6 A Brief Summary 64 Chapter 4 Fertility Intention Surveys and the Evaluation on Effects of “Selective Two-Child” Policy Implementation 66 4.1 Evidence and Logic of Two Different Kinds of Evaluation 67 4.2 Several Figures Related to Evaluation of Policy Implementation Effects 72 4.3 Further Discussion on the Evaluation of “Selective Two-Child” Policy Implementation Effects 80 Chapter 5 The Implementation Effects of “Universal Two-Child” Birth Policy 83 5.1 The Evaluation of the Policy Effects by Relevant Government Departments 84 5.2 The Evaluation of the Policy Effects in Academic Circles 87 5.3 Analysis and Evaluation Based on Birth Numbers of the Second Child in the Years of 2016-2019 91 5.4 Further Thinking on the Evaluation of the Policy Effects of “Universal Two-Child” Policy 95 Part Ⅱ Fertility Willingness of Reproductive Age Population and the Influencing Factors Chapter 6 Demographic Structural Characteristics Underneath the Policy and Fertility Intention for the Second Child 103 6.1 The Significance of Analyzing Population Problem Beneath the Policy 103 6.2 The Data That the Analysis Is Based on 104 6.3 Critical Demographic Structure Beneath the Birth Policy: Urban-Rural and Age 106 6.4 Fertility Intention for the Second Child of the Potential Population Beneath the Policy 111 6.5 Summary and Discussion 116 Chapter 7 Age Structure and Two-Child Bearing Willingness of Urban Childbearing Age Population 118 7.1 Literature Review on Two-Child Bearing Willingness 119 7.2 Samples and Data 122 7.3 Proportion and Age Structure of 3 Groups of Women of Childbearing Age 123 7.4 Two-Child Bearing Willingness of 3 Groups of Women of Childbearing Age 126 7.5 Interactive Analysis of Age Structure and Bearing Willingness of 3 Groups of Women of Childbearing Age 127 7.6 Summary and Discussion 129 Chapter 8 Influencing Factors of Willingness of Bearing Two Children on Two Types of Urban Reproductive Age Population 133 8.1 Research Background and Target Questions 133 8.2 Literature Review on Influencing Factors of Two Children Bearing Willingness of Reproductive Age Population 135 8.3 Influencing Factors of the Second Child Bearing Willingness Among Reproductive Age Population Characterized by “Couple With A Child and One Side Is the Only Child” and “Both the Couple Are the Only Child and Have One Child” 139 8.4 Influencing Factors of the Second Child Bearing Willingness Among Reproductive Age Population Characterized by “Both the Couple Are Non-Only Children and Have One Child” 142 8.5 Conclusion and Discussion 144 Chapter 9 “Hypothetical”and“Realistic”Two Children Bearing Willingness 147 9.1 Research Background and Target Questions 147 9.2 Literature Review 148 9.3 Research Design and Data Sources 152 9.4 Research Results and Analysis 156 9.5 Conclusion and Discussion 160 Chapter 10 Changes of Fertility Willingness of Two Generations of Parents in Urban China 164 10.1 Research Questions and Related Literature Review 164 10.2 Research Design and Data Source 167 10.3 Research Results and Analysis 172 10.4 Research Conclusion and Discussion of Related Issues 180 Chapter 11 Second Child Bearing Motivation of Urban Reproductive Age Population 186 11.1 Research Background and Target Question 186 11.2 Literature Review 187 11.3 Data Source and Variable Measurement 192 11.4 Existing Research Results of General Fertility Motivation 195 11.5 Analysis on the Motivation of the Second Child Bearing of Urban Reproductive Age Population 197 11.6 Research Conclusion and Discussion 199 Chapter 12 Why Rare Willingness for Bearing the Second Child Among Urban Reproductive Age Population 202 12.1 Research Background and Target Question 202 12.2 Literature Review 203 12.3 Samples and Data Source 207 12.4 Analysis on Reasons Why Urban Reproductive Age Population Have Rare Willingness for Bearing the Second Child 209 12.5 Research Conclusion and Discussion 212 Chapter 13 Fertility Choices and Influencing Factors of One-Child People of Reproductive Age in Urban China 217 13.1 Research Background and Target Questions 217 13.2 Literature Review and Data Description 219 13.3 Proportion and Features of Second Child Birth Applicants 221 13.4 Why Non-Applicants Do Not Apply 223 13.5 Factors Relating to Whether People of Reproductive Age Applying for the Second Child Birth or Not 225 13.6 Research Conclusion and Discussion 227 Chapter 14 Possibility and Influence of Conformity Behavior in Bearing the Second Child 232 14.1 Research Questions and Literature Review 232 14.2 Data and Methods 235 14.3 Possibility of Conformity Behavior in Bearing the Second Child 238 14.4 Features of Conformity Behavior in Bearing the Second Child 239 14.5 Possible Influence of Conformity Behavior on Bearing the Second Child 240 14.6 Research Conclusion and Discussion 241 Chapter 15 What Are the Factors That Affect the Fertility Willingness of the Second Child Among Reproductive Age Population ?244 15.1 Review on Existing Research Results 245 15.2 The Analysis and Judgment of Existing Research Results 249 15.3 Conclusion and Questions Worth Exploring 255 Part Ⅲ The Shift From “Only-Child Era” to “Post-Only-Child Era” Chapter 16 “4-2-1”Problem in Only Child Policy Background 261 16.1 “4-2-1”Problem: A Paradox 263 16.2 What Is the Essence of “4-2-1” Problem 268 16.3 The Social Impact of “4-2-1”Problem 273 Chapter 17 The Adjustment of Fertility Policy and the Change of Chinese Family Pattern 280 17.1 Chinese Families Under the Only Child Policy 281 17.2 “Universal Two-Child” Policy and Family Birth Choice 283 17.3 “Post-Only-Child Era” and the Problems of Only Child’s Families 285 17.4 “Universal Two-Child” Policy and the Changes of Chinese Families 287 Chapter 18 The Influence of Two-Child Fertility Policy on Parent- Child Relationship in Young Couples’ Families 293 18.1 Socialization: An Important Perspective to Understand the New Family Relationship 294 18.2 Facing Two Children: The New Content of Continuous Socialization for One Child’s Parents 296 18.3 Facing Younger Brother or Sister: The New Content of Socialization for the First Child in the Family 301 18.4 The Implication of Socialization of Parent-Child in “Selective Two-Child” Family on That of “Universal Two-Child” 304 Chapter 19 The Only Child Problem in “Post-Only-Child Era” 306 19.1 Only Child Problem in “Only-Child Era” 307 19.2 The Disappeared Policy and the Non-Disappeared Population 310 19.3 Three Perspectives on the Only Child Problem in “Post-Only-Child Era” 314 19.4 Several Only Child Problems in “Post-Only-Child Era” 317 Chapter 20 Having Two Children: Another Fertility Revolution in Chinese Society 324 20.1 Having Only One Child: An Unprecedented Fertility Revolution 324 20.2 Having Two Children: The Goal of New Fertility Revolution and Its Features 332 20.3 The Enlightenment of Social Reaction in the Early Stage of “Selective Two-Child” Policy Enforcement 335 20.4 Vigorously Cultivating the Fertility Culture of “Having Two Children” 339 Chapter 21 Three-child Policy: From a Single Population Policy to a Comprehensive Social Policy 344 21.1 People-centered to Promote Sustainable Population and Social Development 345 21.2 Takes《the Decision》as an Opportunity to Strive to Improve the Willingness to Have Second and Third Children 350 21.3 Construction of a New Fertility Culture is an Important Supplement to Various Supporting Measures 353 21.4 Two Important Aspects in the Construction of the New Fertility Culture 358 References 362 Index 371 Epilogue 376
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