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碳排放与低碳发展报告
  • 书号:9787030514288
    作者:魏一鸣等
  • 外文书名:
  • 装帧:平装
    开本:16
  • 页数:292
    字数:400000
    语种:zh-Hans
  • 出版社:科学出版社
    出版时间:2017-03-01
  • 所属分类:
  • 定价: ¥138.00元
    售价: ¥138.00元
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随着中国国际和国内环境的变化,低碳发展已经从全球气候变化谈判的国际减排要求,转变为国内转型发展的内生动力,也是实现经济、气候、环境和社会协调发展的必然要求。中国作为最大的碳排放国家,由于城镇化、工业化、国际化和现代化程度的进一步提高,今后一段时期内,高碳锁定效应仍将继续存在,面临发展阶段难以逾越、碳排放总量面临达峰、能源消费结构以煤炭为主、技术相对落后、区域碳排放差异较大、城镇化背景下高碳排放基础设施的扩张等诸多挑战。因此,低碳发展不仅需要融入国家重要发展战略和决策,更要统领生态文明建设、新型城镇化建设等重大政策。本书围绕低碳发展,系统研究碳排放与经济增长方式、居民消费、重点工业部门、城镇化、交通、区域发展、国际贸易、技术与政策、低碳城市等重大问题,深入剖析不同领域和部门二氧化碳排放动态变化,提出中国碳排放达峰前和达峰后两个不同阶段低碳发展的建议。
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目录

  • 目录
    前言
    第1章 气候变化与低碳发展 1
    1.1 低碳发展的内涵 1
    1.1.1 低碳发展的基本特征是低能耗、低排放和低污染 2
    1.1.2 低碳发展本质上是一种经济社会发展模式 2
    1.1.3 低碳发展强调经济制度和社会制度的创新 2
    1.1.4 低碳发展倡导意识形态的转变 3
    1.2 世界碳排放格局 3
    1.2.1 全球碳排放总体上持续增长 3
    1.2.2 电力、交通、制造业碳排放量占总量的80% 5
    1.2.3 煤炭利用是主要的碳排放源 5
    1.2.4 近20年碳排放增量主要来自中国和印度 6
    1.3 减缓气候变化的国际形势 6
    1.3.1 气候变化导致的影响和风险越来越显著 6
    1.3.2 世界各国面临将温升控制在2℃以内的挑战 7
    1.3.3 国家自主贡献减排承诺将成为2020年气候治理新秩序构建的基础 8
    1.3.4 气候变化成为世界各国多边和双边合作的重要内容 8
    1.4 世界主要国家低碳发展战略动态 8
    1.4.1 欧盟提出2030年减排40%的承诺 9
    1.4.2 英国率先践行低碳经济 9
    1.4.3 日本倡导低碳社会计划 10
    1.4.4 美国提出低碳经济战略 11
    1.4.5 发达国家实施低碳城市和社区示范 11
    1.5 中国低碳发展的战略需求 12
    1.5.1 政府提出了2030年左右碳排放达峰的目标 13
    1.5.2 低碳发展是生态文明建设的核心内容 13
    1.5.3 低碳发展是实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标和伟大复兴中国梦的重要途径 13
    1.5.4 低碳技术和产品服务发展将引领新的经济增长点 14
    1.5.5 我国的温室气体减排压力将伴随着经济发展长期存在 14
    1.5.6 国内能源安全和环境污染倒逼高碳经济增长方式低碳化转型 14
    1.6 中国低碳发展面临的挑战 15
    1.6.1 低碳发展需要与新型工业化、城镇化、信息化和农业现代化高度融合 15
    1.6.2 碳排放总量面临达峰 15
    1.6.3 以煤为主的巨大能源消费量短期内改变 15
    1.6.4 技术水平相对落后导致低碳生产后备不足 16
    1.6.5 区域碳排放差异较大 16
    1.6.6 快速城镇化进一步刺激高碳排放型基础设施的扩张 16
    1.6.7 低碳发展的法律法规政策与制度尚未健全 16
    第2章 碳排放与经济发展关系研究 17
    2.1 世界主要国家碳排放与经济发展关系现状分析 17
    2.1.1 世界人均碳排放持续增长,但增速低于经济增速 17
    2.1.2 高收入国家高排放低增长,低收入国家低排放高增长 18
    2.1.3 部分发达国家已出现人均碳峰值,发展中国家仍在增长 19
    2.2 世界主要国家碳排放与经济发展历史演变特征 26
    2.2.1 碳排放与经济发展关系具有非线性特征 26
    2.2.2 人均碳排放量在人均GDP 2.2万美元左右趋缓 27
    2.3 本章小结 28
    第3章 中国碳排放基本特征研究 30
    3.1 碳排放现状 30
    3.1.1 煤炭利用的碳排放占能源消费碳排放的80% 30
    3.1.2 碳排放总量占全球的20%以上且人均碳排放超过欧盟平均水平 31
    3.1.3 碳排放强度相对于1980年下降了75% 32
    3.1.4 工业碳排放几乎占全球工业碳排放的一半 32
    3.1.5 城镇化发展高碳特征显著 33
    3.2 碳排放年度动态变化特征 34
    3.2.1 人均GDP和人口增长是碳排放的主要驱动力 35
    3.2.2 工业增加值变化决定了产业结构对碳排放的影响 35
    3.2.3 碳排放强度下降有效减缓了碳排放增速 36
    3.3 碳排放的行业关联分析 37
    3.3.1 建筑安装工程总额推动了主要排放行业的碳排放增长 38
    3.3.2 建筑业对钢铁、建材等行业的刚性需求导致了主要排放行业的碳排放增长 40
    3.4 本章小结 42
    第4章 居民消费与低碳发展 43
    4.1 居民消费的直接碳排放 43
    4.1.1 居民直接碳排放持续增加,城乡人均排放差距逐渐缩小 43
    4.1.2 城镇居民私人交通碳排放增速快,取暖制冷和炊事热水碳排放占比多 45
    4.1.3 农村居民私人交通碳排放增速高于城镇居民,取暖制冷碳排放未来增加潜力较大 47
    4.2 居民消费的间接碳排放 49
    4.2.1 城镇居民消费的间接碳排放明显高于农村居民 49
    4.2.2 高收入城镇居民的人均间接碳排放是低收入农村居民的7倍 51
    4.3 碳排放约束下的最优消费模式 52
    4.3.1 固体废弃物排放控制的协同效果显著 53
    4.3.2 最优模式应降低对纺织、造纸等7种商品的消费需求 54
    4.4 居民碳排放未来趋势 54
    4.4.1 居民直接碳排放增长空间 54
    4.4.2 居民消费的间接碳排放展望 56
    4.5 本章小结 56
    第5章 重点工业部门与低碳发展 58
    5.1 重点工业部门碳排放现状 58
    5.1.1 钢铁生产规模巨大,碳排放或已出现峰值 59
    5.1.2 建材部门高附加值产品比例低,结构减排潜力大 62
    5.1.3 有色行业规模世界第一,企业排放水平差异大 64
    5.1.4 发电碳排放占全国1/2,以煤为主的电源结构短期难以改变 68
    5.2 重点工业部门低碳发展的挑战 71
    5.2.1 钢铁部门内部技术参差不齐,电炉钢比例低 71
    5.2.2 有色产品种类工艺细杂,再生资源利用程度不高 72
    5.2.3 煤电占比较高,电源结构还有优化空间 73
    5.3 重点工业部门低碳发展的政策建议 74
    5.3.1 优化钢材产品结构,提高电炉钢比例 74
    5.3.2 严格执行低标水泥停产政策,强化废弃物循环利用政策 74
    5.3.3 继续优化发电能源结构,加快低碳技术研发和推广 75
    5.3.4 重视再生资源利用,实现部分产业向西部及海外转移 75
    第6章 城镇化与低碳发展 77
    6.1 人口城镇化对碳排放的影响 77
    6.1.1 人口城镇化起点低、速度快且区域差异大 77
    6.1.2 人口城镇化不主导人均生活用能增加 79
    6.1.3 人口城镇化不主导人均生活碳排放增加 82
    6.2 土地城镇化对碳排放的影响 83
    6.2.1 城市建设带动大量碳排放 84
    6.2.2 人口密度和人均城市建设用地面积的控制有助于减排 84
    6.3 半城镇化对农民工消费碳排放的影响 85
    6.3.1 农民工消费引起的碳排放总量占全部居民碳排放近1/5 87
    6.3.2 农民工消费碳排放集中在电力生产业和食品加工业 88
    6.3.3 农民工市民化将增加全国二氧化碳排放近2亿吨 90
    6.4 未来低碳发展对城镇化的要求 90
    6.4.1 合理引导居民消费结构转型升级 91
    6.4.2 形成科学合理的城市发展模式 91
    第7章 交通碳排放与低碳发展 92
    7.1 交通碳排放趋势和特征 92
    7.1.1 我国交通部门碳排放增速远高于全球平均水平 92
    7.1.2 我国交通部门碳排放主要来源于道路交通 93
    7.2 交通碳排放的驱动因素 96
    7.2.1 GDP和私人小汽车增长是交通碳排放增长的重要原因 96
    7.2.2 交通运输强度和能源强度下降是抑制交通碳排放增长的主要因素 98
    7.3 交通低碳发展的政策实践 99
    7.3.1 道路运输:综合采用命令控制、经济激励及宣传教育策略 100
    7.3.2 水路运输:优化港口布局、加快技术和能源结构改造 103
    7.3.3 航空运输:大力发展航空减排技术、适当引入碳交易机制 105
    7.3.4 铁路运输:提升铁路复线率和电气化率、提高基础设备技术水平 106
    7.4 主要结论与政策建议 107
    第8章 区域碳排放与低碳发展 109
    8.1 区域碳排放空间差异特征 109
    8.1.1 鲁、冀、苏、粤、豫、蒙、辽的终端用能碳排放占47% 109
    8.1.2 部分地区人均碳排放达到发达国家水平 110
    8.1.3 经济发达地区碳排放强度明显低于经济欠发达地区 111
    8.1.4 上海是单位国土面积碳排放最高的地区 113
    8.2 区域碳排放核算 113
    8.2.1 区域间碳流动明显且呈上升趋势 115
    8.2.2 各区域生产端碳排放 116
    8.2.3 各区域使用端碳排放 117
    8.3 区域碳排放分类特征 119
    8.3.1 “人均GDP最高,排放强度最低”类 120
    8.3.2 “排放强度较低,人均GDP较高”类 121
    8.3.3 “人均GDP较低,人均排放较低”类 122
    8.3.4 “排放强度与人均排放双高”类 124
    8.4 区域低碳发展建议 126
    第9章 国际贸易中的碳排放 127
    9.1 国际贸易中的隐含碳流 127
    9.1.1 中国大陆出口贸易中碳密集型产品比例偏高,进出口贸易格局及结构难以调整 128
    9.1.2 出口隐含碳以地理位置为导向,进口隐含碳则主要来源于中国与俄罗斯 131
    9.2 中国与欧、美、日的贸易隐含碳流 136
    9.2.1 中国对欧元区的隐含碳排放总量大,主要集中在德、法、意 136
    9.2.2 中国对美国出口隐含碳的规模增长较快,2009年略有下降 139
    9.2.3 中国对日本隐含碳出口持续多年下降,进口则持续增长 139
    9.3 全球价值链下的碳贸易强度分析 141
    9.3.1 全球价值链下碳贸易强度呈下降趋势,2005年来尤为明显 142
    9.3.2 中、印、俄的出口碳贸易强度高于本地碳强度和进口碳贸易强度 142
    9.3.3 中国与其他经济体间的双边出口贸易碳强度总体差异不大 146
    9.4 出口贸易结构调整的碳减排效应分析 148
    9.4.1 出口贸易结构调整对碳排放强度的影响 150
    9.4.2 实现相同碳减排量时各行业情景的经济影响 151
    9.5 主要结论与启示 153
    第10章 低碳发展技术 155
    10.1 低碳技术发展的现状 155
    10.1.1 主要行业能效指标与国际先进水平比较仍有差距 155
    10.1.2 工业部门已经逐步淘汰落后技术设备 157
    10.1.3 新能源利用技术逐渐成熟且呈规模应用 158
    10.1.4 脱碳技术示范运行但距大规模应用尚远 160
    10.2 低碳技术发展面临的挑战 161
    10.2.1 缺乏自主创新能力 161
    10.2.2 核心技术投资需求较大 161
    10.2.3 融资渠道有待拓展 162
    10.2.4 部分新能源技术产能过剩 163
    10.2.5 政策支持有待完善 164
    10.3 低碳技术发展展望 164
    10.3.1 国际引进转向自主创新 164
    10.3.2 技术选择更加具有弹性 164
    10.3.3 制定低碳技术发展路线图 165
    10.4 低碳技术发展建议 167
    10.4.1 继续淘汰落后技术设备 167
    10.4.2 提高已成熟技术普及率 167
    10.4.3 加快核心技术自主创新 167
    10.4.4 推进国际技术吸收转化 167
    10.4.5 加快完善技术政策支持 167
    10.4.6 加强低碳技术政府引导 168
    第11章 低碳发展政策评估与模拟 169
    11.1 低碳发展的命令控制型政策 169
    11.1.1 行政管制是初期节能减碳的主要措施 169
    11.1.2 能源消费总量控制是实现碳减排的有效途径 170
    11.2 低碳发展的财政税收与价格机制 171
    11.2.1 主要发达国家节能减碳财税制度 172
    11.2.2 我国节能减碳财税政策现状 174
    11.2.3 碳税是节能减碳的重要税收制度选择 175
    11.2.4 碳税的社会经济成本:国际竞争力效应和收入分配效应 182
    11.3 低碳发展的技术政策 191
    11.3.1 国际经验:低碳技术政策的实施及成效 191
    11.3.2 中国实践:主要的低碳发展政策的制定及尝试 193
    11.4 启示与政策建议 196
    第12章 碳排放权交易 198
    12.1 碳排放权交易机制特点 198
    12.1.1 国际碳排放交易相关法律较为完善,国内缺乏上位法 205
    12.1.2 国际MRV制度严格,国内已初步建立相关规范 207
    12.1.3 国际碳市场交易机制相对健全,国内处于起步探索阶段 209
    12.2 碳排放权交易初始配额分配研究 213
    12.2.1 初始配额分配模式 213
    12.2.2 碳排放交易的社会经济影响 214
    12.3 我国碳排放权交易市场存在的机制问题 220
    12.3.1 法律机制:法律属性不明确、上位法缺失,导致交易市场无法可依 220
    12.3.2 体制机制:政策之间缺乏衔接,考核指标重叠,企业负担增加 220
    12.3.3 配额分配:数据质量和统计口径参差不齐,配额分配公平性难以体现 221
    12.3.4 市场机制:交易规则不一致,全国范围内推广难度较大 221
    12.4 我国当前碳排放权交易存在的问题 221
    12.4.1 市场表现:市场流动性差,碳交易价格失真 221
    12.4.2 参与主体:企业按期履约率低,市场活跃度较差 221
    12.4.3 交易平台:交易市场分散,议价能力薄弱 221
    12.4.4 金融衍生品:碳金融产品种类较少,金融机构参与不足 222
    12.5 建立全国统一碳交易市场的建议与展望 222
    12.5.1 出台统一法律法规,明确碳市场的法律地位及相关主体的权责范围 222
    12.5.2 科学评估总结试点的经验教训,保障试点顺利向全国统一碳市场过渡 222
    12.5.3 结合未来经济发展趋势,确定碳配额总量,并逐步扩大碳市场行业覆盖范围 223
    12.5.4 采取免费分配和拍卖相结合的初始配额分配方式,优化配额分配方案设计 223
    12.5.5 制定国家统一的、与国际接轨的MRV标准 223
    12.5.6 充分考虑碳交易市场对社会经济的影响 224
    第13章 典型城市的低碳发展:以试点城市为例 225
    13.1 低碳城市发展进程及分类 225
    13.1.1 低碳城市发展进程 225
    13.1.2 低碳城市试点 227
    13.1.3 低碳城市试点特征 227
    13.2 中国城市低碳试点基本状况 228
    13.2.1 经济发展阶段及结构 228
    13.2.2 能源消费及能源强度比较 229
    13.3 低碳试点城市重点发展领域 232
    13.3.1 产业结构调整 232
    13.3.2 能源结构优化 232
    13.3.3 低碳建筑推广 233
    13.3.4 低碳交通构建 234
    13.4 低碳城市发展模式 234
    13.4.1 老工业基地城市:挖掘技术节能潜力与新经济增长点 234
    13.4.2 国际大都市城市:寻求经济发展与节能减碳的协同管理 235
    13.4.3 资源型城市:保障资源开发利用与城市发展的可持续性 237
    13.4.4 生态型城市:顶层设计下的多元化低碳共建 238
    13.5 结论及政策建议 239
    13.5.1 进一步完善细化相关政策法规,为低碳发展提供必要的指导和保障 240
    13.5.2 进一步完善和补充直接指导低碳试点工作的实施方案 240
    13.5.3 强化试点的低碳建设开拓能力和示范作用,关注城市综合低碳建设、促进试点间的协同成长 241
    13.5.4 点面结合,推进中长期低碳城市建设 241
    第14章 中国低碳发展战略思考 242
    14.1 碳排放峰值展望 242
    14.1.1 我国有望在2030年前实现显著的碳峰值 242
    14.1.2 工业部门在2020年之前达峰,交通部门达峰时间不确定性较大 243
    14.1.3 各类情景下总量达峰时间基本不变,但峰值规模受投资率影响较大 243
    14.2 碳排放达峰的挑战 244
    14.2.1 能源供应安全保障将很难支撑碳排放峰值对能源消费结构的刚性要求 244
    14.2.2 未来大规模城镇化将是2030年碳排放达峰的主要增长驱动 245
    14.2.3 区域发展不均衡将导致部分区域碳排放仍将快速增长 245
    14.2.4 工业碳排放将直接决定碳峰值目标实现与否 245
    14.3 达峰前的低碳发展行动 246
    14.3.1 构建气候友好型能源供应和消费体系 246
    14.3.2 率先在经济较发达地区推动低碳发展并尽早实现人均碳排放出现峰值 246
    14.3.3 打造低碳产业体系 246
    14.3.4 加强城市低碳建设 247
    14.4 达峰后的战略思考 247
    14.4.1 构建以低碳和近零碳能源为主的能源供应和消费体系 247
    14.4.2 全国范围开展零碳试点 247
    14.4.3 形成以低碳国际竞争力为特征的产业 247
    14.4.4 全社会建立低碳消费模式 247
    14.5 我国低碳发展的政策建议 248
    14.5.1 明确低碳发展在国家法律和重大决策中的战略地位 248
    14.5.2 低碳发展统领以生态文明建设和新型城镇化建设为主的重大政策 248
    14.5.3 强调新改扩建项目的碳排放评价的源头治理政策 248
    14.5.4 制定高碳排放行业的碳排放管理标准 248
    14.5.5 加强碳排放统计核算与碳排放交易基础能力建设 249
    14.5.6 深度推进可再生能源与新能源领域的低碳科技创新 249
    参考文献 250
    附表 256
    附表A-1 部门名称及对应的2012年IO表部门代码 256
    附表A-2 钢铁行业主要节能技术 256
    附表A-3 水泥行业主要节能技术 258
    附表A-4 石化行业主要节能技术 259
    附表A-5 建筑行业主要节能技术 260
    附表A-6 新能源与可再生能源主要发展技术选择 261
    附表A-7 WIOD的35个行业代号及解释 262
    后记 263
    Contents
    Preface
    Chapter 1 Climate change and low carbon development 1
    1.1 Connotation of low carbon development 1
    1.1.1 Low carbon development is characterized by low energy consumption, low carbon emissions and low pollution 2
    1.1.2 Low carbon development is essentially a mode of economic and social development 2
    1.1.3 Low carbon development emphasizes the innovation of economic system and social system 2
    1.1.4 Low carbon development advocates the transformation of ideology 3
    1.2 Carbon emissions in the world 3
    1.2.1 Global carbon emissions in general continued to grow 3
    1.2.2 Carbon emissions from electricity, transportation, and manufacturing sectors accounted for 80% of the total emissions 5
    1.2.3 Coal utilization dominated carbon emissions 5
    1.2.4 The increase of carbon emissions was mainly from China and India during the last twenty years 6
    1.3 International situations to mitigate climate change 6
    1.3.1 The impacts and risks caused by climate change are becoming more pronounced 6
    1.3.2 All the countries in the world face the challenge of keeping the global temperature rise below 2℃ 7
    1.3.3 INDC will become the basis to build the post-2020 climate regime 8
    1.3.4 Climate change has become one of the most important parts of multilateral and bilateral cooperation in the world 8
    1.4 Low carbon development strategies in major countries 8
    1.4.1 The EU had pledged to reduce emissions by 40% by 2030 9
    1.4.2 United Kingdom firstly practiced low carbon economy 9
    1.4.3 Japan advocated low carbon social programs 10
    1.4.4 The United States proposed a low carbon economic strategy 11
    1.4.5 Some developed countries had carried out low carbon city and community pilots 11
    1.5 China’s strategic requirements for low carbon development 12
    1.5.1 Chinese government has set a target for carbon emissions to peak around 2030 13
    1.5.2 Low carbon development is the core of ecological civilization construction 13
    1.5.3 Low carbon development is an important way to realize the goal of "two hundred years" and the dream of great revival of China 13
    1.5.4 Low carbon technologies, products and services will lead the new economic growth 14
    1.5.5 China’s greenhouse gases emission reduction pressure accompanying by economic development will be long-term 14
    1.5.6 Domestic energy security and environmental pollution are forcing the transformation from high-carbon economic growth mode to low carbon development 14
    1.6 Challenges China face on its path to low carbon development 15
    1.6.1 Low carbon development should be highly integrated with the new type of industria-lization, urbanization, information technology and agricultural modernization 15
    1.6.2 CO2 emissions should peak around 2030 15
    1.6.3 Large energy demand dominated by coal is hard to change in the short term 15
    1.6.4 Relatively low technological level leads to low carbon production back-up 16
    1.6.5 Regional carbon emissions are quite different 16
    1.6.6 Rapid urbanization will further stimulate the expansion of high-carbon-emitting infrastructures 16
    1.6.7 The laws, regulations, policies and systems of low carbon development have not yet been perfected 16
    Chapter 2 Study on the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development 17
    2.1 Analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in the main countries of the world 17
    2.1.1 Global carbon emissions per capita continued to grow, but the growth rate is lower than that of economy 17
    2.1.2 High-income countries with high emissions present lower growth, but low-income countries with low emissions present higher growth 18
    2.1.3 Carbon emissions per capita in some developed countries have peaked, and those in developing countries are still growing 19
    2.2 The historical characteristics of carbon emissions and economic development in the main countries of the world 26
    2.2.1 The relationship between carbon emissions and economic development is nonlinear 26
    2.2.2 Carbon emissions per capita slowed down when GDP per capita is 22,000 US dollars 27
    2.3 Summary 28
    Chapter 3 Study on characteristics of carbon emission in China 30
    3.1 Current carbon emissions 30
    3.1.1 Carbon emissions caused by coal use account for 80% of total emissions related to energy consumption 30
    3.1.2 The total emissions accounted for more than 20% of the world and emissions per capita exceeded the average level of EU 31
    3.1.3 Carbon emissions intensity decreased by 75% compared to 1980 32
    3.1.4 Industrial carbon emissions account for almost half of global industrial emissions 32
    3.1.5 Urbanization development is significantly characterized by high-carbon emissions 33
    3.2 Annual dynamic evolution of carbon emission 34
    3.2.1 GDP per capita and population growth drove the growth of carbon emissions 35
    3.2.2 Changes of valve-added in industrial sectors determine the impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions 35
    3.2.3 The decline in carbon intensity has effectively mitigated the growth of carbon emissions 36
    3.3 Analysis of intersectoral linkage of carbon emissions 37
    3.3.1 The total amount of construction and installation projects contributed to the growth of carbon emissions in the major emission sectors 38
    3.3.2 The rigid demand in the construction industry for steel, building materials and other Industries has led to the growth of carbon emissions in major emission sectors 40
    3.4 Summary 42
    Chapter 4 Household consumption and low carbon development 43
    4.1 Direct carbon emissions from household consumption 43
    4.1.1 Direct carbon emissions from household consumption continued to rise, but the gap between emissions per capita from urban and rural household gradually shrunk 43
    4.1.2 Carbon emissions led by urban private transport increased rapidly, and those from heating, cooling and cooking accounted for larger proportion 45
    4.1.3 Carbon emissions from rural private transport grew faster than those from urban private transport, and emissions from heating and cooling have greater potential to increase 47
    4.2 Indirect carbon emissions from household consumption 49
    4.2.1 Indirect carbon emissions from urban household consumption were significantly higher than those from rural household consumption 49
    4.2.2 Indirect carbon emissions per capita from urban higher-income household consumption were more than 6 time than those from rural low-income household consumption 51
    4.3 The optimal consumption pattern under the constraint of carbon emissions 52
    4.3.1 The co-benefits of solid waste emission control scenario were remarkable 53
    4.3.2 The optimal consumption pattern should decrease the demands for textile,paper and other 7 kinds of goods 54
    4.4 The future trend of carbon emission from household consumption 54
    4.4.1 The increase of direct carbon emissions from household consumption 54
    4.4.2 The indirect carbon emission outlook of household consumption 56
    4.5 Summary 56
    Chapter 5 Key industrial sectors and low carbon development 58
    5.1 Carbon emissions in key industrial sectors 58
    5.1.1 Iron and steel production scale is huge, and carbon emissions may have peaked 59
    5.1.2 The proportion of high value-added products in building materials sector is low, and the reduction potential to adjust structure will be larger 62
    5.1.3 The scale of non-ferrous metal industry was the largest in the world, but corporate emissions was different greatly 64
    5.1.4 Carbon emissions from thermal power generation accounted for half of the total national emissions, and coal-based power structure is difficult to change in the short-term 68
    5.2 Challenges of low carbon development in key industrial sectors 71
    5.2.1 Technologies in iron and steel sector were uneven, and steels produced by electric furnace were less 71
    5.2.2 Products and process of non-ferrous metals industry are fine and various, and the use of renewable resources was still less 72
    5.2.3 Coal power accounted for the highest proportion of electricity generation, and the optimization of power supply structure will have some potential 73
    5.3 Policy recommendations on low carbon development in key industrial sectors 74
    5.3.1 The structure of steel products should be optimized, and the proportion of electric furnace steel should be improved 74
    5.3.2 The cut-off policies for low standard cements should be implemented strictly, and waste recycling policy should be strengthen 74
    5.3.3 The energy structure of power generation should be optimized continually, and low carbon technology research and development should be accelerated 75
    5.3.4 The use of renewable resources should be paid great attention, and some industries may be transferred to the west and overseas 75
    Chapter 6 Urbanization and low carbon development 77
    6.1 The impact of population urbanization on carbon emissions 77
    6.1.1 Early urbanization level was low, but now it experienced a faster speed and presented obvious regional differences 77
    6.1.2 Population urbanization did not lead to an increase in residential energy consumption per capita 79
    6.1.3 Population urbanization did not lead to an increase in carbon emissions per capita 82
    6.2 The impact of land urbanization on carbon emissions 83
    6.2.1 Urban construction drove large amounts of carbon emissions 84
    6.2.2 Increase of population density and decrease of urban construction land per capita can help reduce emissions 84
    6.3 The impact of semi-urbanization of rural migrant workers on carbon emissions 85
    6.3.1 Carbon emissions from rural migrant workers consumption accounted for nearly 1/5 of total emissions from household consumption 87
    6.3.2 Carbon emissions from rural migrant workers consumption mainly came from electricity generation and food processing 88
    6.3.3 Carbon emission will increase by nearly 200 million tons if rural migrant workers become the urban residents 90
    6.4 The requirements of low carbon development on urbanization 90
    6.4.1 Transformation and upgrading of residents’ consumption structure should be reasonably guided 91
    6.4.2 Urban development should be planned scientifically 91
    Chapter 7 Carbon emission in transportation and low carbon development 92
    7.1 Trends and characteristics of carbon emissions in transportation 92
    7.1.1 Carbon emissions in transportation in China grew faster than the average global growth 92
    7.1.2 Carbon emissions in transportation in China mainly came from road transportation 93
    7.2 Driving force of carbon emissions in transportation 96
    7.2.1 The increases of GDP and private car mainly drove the increase of carbon emissions in transportation 96
    7.2.2 The decline of transportation intensity and energy intensity mainly mitigate the growth of carbon emissions in transportation 98
    7.3 Policies of low carbon transportation development 99
    7.3.1 Road Transport: measures of command and control, economic incentives and propaganda strategies should be adopted together 100
    7.3.2 Waterway Transport: the port layout, technology improvement and energy structure adjustment should be optimized 103
    7.3.3 Air transport: aviation emission reduction technology should be vigorously developed and carbon trading mechanism can be introduced appropriately 105
    7.3.4 Railway transport: the proportion of double-line railway and electrical railway should be enhanced, and the technical level of fundamental equipment should be improved 106
    7.4 Summary 107
    Chapter 8 Regional carbon emissions and low carbon development 109
    8.1 Spatial difference of carbon emissions 109
    8.1.1 Carbon emissions related to end-use energy of Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Mongolia, Liaoning accounted for 47% 109
    8.1.2 Carbon emissions per capita in some regions was higher than the level of some developed countries 110
    8.1.3 Carbon intensity in developed regions is obviously lower than that in underdeveloped regions 111
    8.1.4 Shanghai had the highest carbon emission per unit of land area 113
    8.2 Accounting for regional carbon emissions 113
    8.2.1 Interregional carbon flow rose obviously 115
    8.2.2 Carbon emissions under production-based principal 116
    8.2.3 Carbon emissions under the final use driven principal 117
    8.3 Classification of regional carbon emissions 119
    8.3.1 The category of “lower carbon intensity with highest GDP per capita” 120
    8.3.2 The category of “lower emission intensity with higher GDP per capita” 121
    8.3.3 The category of “lower carbon emissions per capita with lower GDP per capita” 122
    8.3.4 The category of “higher carbon emissions per capita and higher carbon intensity” 124
    8.4 Proposals for regional low carbon development 126
    Chapter 9 Carbon emissions in international trade 127
    9.1 Carbon flow embodied in international trade 127
    9.1.1 The proportion of carbon-intensive products in China's export trade was higher, and import and export pattern and structure are difficult to adjust 128
    9.1.2 The carbon emissions embodied in export was mainly geographically oriented, while those embodied in import was mainly from China and Russia 131
    9.2 Carbon flow embodied in trades among China, Europe, the United States, and Japan 136
    9.2.1 Carbon emissions embodied in trade between China and Europe was huge, and Germany, France and Italy accounted for the largest share 136
    9.2.2 Carbon emissions embodied in China’s exports to the United States increased rapidly, but presented a slight decline in 2009 139
    9.2.3 Carbon emissions embodied in exports to Japan had been declining for many years, while those embodied in imports had continued to grow 139
    9.3 Analysis of carbon trade intensity in the global value chain 141
    9.3.1 Carbon trade intensity in the global value chain was declining, especially since 2005 142
    9.3.2 Carbon trade intensity of export between China and India was higher than domestic and imported intensity 142
    9.3.3 Carbon trade intensity of export between China and other economies has little difference 146
    9.4 The effect of Chinese export trade structure adjustment on emission reduction 148
    9.4.1 The impact of structural adjustment of export trade on emission intensity 150
    9.4.2 The economic impact for achieving the same reductions 151
    9.5 Summary and implications 153
    Chapter 10 Low carbon technology 155
    10.1 The current situation of low carbon technology 155
    10.1.1 Energy efficiency indicators of major industries have still a gap compared with international advanced level 155
    10.1.2 The industrial sectors has phased out some backward technical equipment 157
    10.1.3 Some new energy utilization technologies have matured and have been applied on a large scale 158
    10.1.4 Decarbonization technology demonstrations have been operating, but there is still a long way for large-scale commercial applications 160
    10.2 Challenges of low carbon technologies 161
    10.2.1 Independent innovation capability is not enough to support low carbon development 161
    10.2.2 The investment demand for core technologies is huge 161
    10.2.3 Financing channels should be expanded 162
    10.2.4 Overcapacity occurs in some new energy technologies industry 163
    10.2.5 Policies supporting low carbon technology should be improved 164
    10.3 Prospects of low carbon technologies 164
    10.3.1 International introduction for technologies should be replaced with independent innovation 164
    10.3.2 Technology options are more resilient 164
    10.3.3 Low carbon technologies development roadmap should be developed 165
    10.4 Suggestions for low carbon technologies development 167
    10.4.1 Backward technologies and equipment should be eliminated continuously 167
    10.4.2 The penetration rate of mature technologies should be improved 167
    10.4.3 The independent innovation of core technologies should be speeded up 167
    10.4.4 The absorption and transformation of international technologies should be promoted 167
    10.4.5 The improvement of technical policy should be accelerated 167
    10.4.6 Guidance for low carbon technologies should be strengthened 168
    Chapter 11 Low carbon policies assessment and modeling 169
    11.1 Command and control policies 169
    11.1.1 Administrative control was the primary measure of energy saving and carbon reduction 169
    11.1.2 Total energy consumption control is an effective way to achieve carbon emission reduction 170
    11.2 The financial tax and price mechanism of low carbon development 171
    11.2.1 Fiscal and taxation system to save energy and reduce carbon emissions in major developed countries 172
    11.2.2 Present situation of Chinese fiscal and taxation policies to save energy and reduce carbon emissions 174
    11.2.3 Carbon tax is an important tax scheme for energy saving and carbon reduction 175
    11.2.4 Socioeconomic costs of carbon tax: international competitiveness effect and income distribution effect 182
    11.3 Technology policies for low carbon development 191
    11.3.1 International experience: implementation and effectiveness of low carbon technology policy 191
    11.3.2 Chinese Practice: formulation and attempts of major low carbon policies 193
    11.4 Policy implications 196
    Chapter 12 Carbon emissions trading 198
    12.1 Characteristics of carbon emissions trading mechanism 198
    12.1.1 Laws related to international carbon emissions trading are perfect, but those in China are absent 205
    12.1.2 International MRV system is strict, and China just established the relevant norms 207
    12.1.3 International carbon market trading mechanism is relatively perfect, and China just begins 209
    12.2 Study on the initial allocation of carbon emissions trading 213
    12.2.1 The initial quota allocation pattern 213
    12.2.2 Socioeconomic impacts of carbon emissions trading 214
    12.3 The mechanism of carbon emission trading market in China 220
    12.3.1 Legal mechanism: legal attribute is unclear to result in that carbon trade market has no laws to follow 220
    12.3.2 Institutional mechanisms: lack of convergence between policies and overlap among assessment indicators increase the burden on enterprises 220
    12.3.3 Quota allocation: data quality and uneven statistical caliber cannot ensure the fairness for allocating quotas 221
    12.3.4 Market mechanism: inconsistent transaction rules made the national carbon trading more difficult 221
    12.4 Problems existing in Chinese current carbon emissions trading 221
    12.4.1 Market performance: market liquidity is poor, and carbon trading price distorted 221
    12.4.2 Participating entities: the compliance rate of enterprises is low and carbon emissions trading market is inactive 221
    12.4.3 Trading platform: trading market scattered, and bargaining power is weak 221
    12.4.4 Financial derivatives: there are fewer types of carbon finance products and less involvement of financial institutions 222
    12.5 Suggestions and prospects of establishing national carbon trading market 222
    12.5.1 Laws and regulations should be formulated to clarify the legal status of the carbon market and the scope of powers and responsibilities of the relevant subjects 222
    12.5.2 The lessons of carbon trading pilots should be assessed scientifically to ensure the transition from pilots to the national carbon market 222
    12.5.3 Combined with the future economic development trends, the total amount of carbon quotas is determined to gradually cover more industries 223
    12.5.4 The free quota allocation and auction allocation should be integrated together to optimize the allocation of quota scheme 223
    12.5.5 MRV standards should be unified and consistent with the international standards 223
    12.5.6 Social and economic impact of the carbon trading market should be taken into account 224
    Chapter 13 Low carbon development of typical cities: a case study of low carbon city piolts 225
    13.1 Development process and classification of low carbon city 225
    13.1.1 Process of low carbon cities 225
    13.1.2 Low carbon city pilots 227
    13.1.3 Characteristics of low carbon city pilots 227
    13.2 Basic status of Chinese low carbon city pilots 228
    13.2.1 Economic development stage and related structure 228
    13.2.2 Energy consumption and energy intensity 229
    13.3 Emphasized aspects of low carbon city pilots 232
    13.3.1 Adjustment of industrial structure 232
    13.3.2 Optimization of energy structure 232
    13.3.3 Promotion of low carbon buildings 233
    13.3.4 Construction of low carbon transport 234
    13.4 Low carbon city mode 234
    13.4.1 Old industrial basecity: the potential of energy saving and the growth of new economic growth should be identified 234
    13.4.2 International metropolis city: collaborative management of economic development, energy saving and carbon reduction should be try to find 235
    13.4.3 Resource-based city: sustainability of resources and sustainable development of city should be ensured 237
    13.4.4 Eco-city: low carbon co-construction under top-level design should be diversified 238
    13.5 Conclusions and policy recommendations 239
    13.5.1 Relevant policies and regulations should be further refined to provide necessary guidance and guarantee for low carbon development 240
    13.5.2 Implementation plan for low carbon city pilots should be further improved 240
    13.5.3 The influence and demonstration role of low carbon city pilots should be strengthened,and comprehensive low carbon city construction should be emphasized to promote synergy between the pilots 241
    13.5.4 Pilots should be combined with national low carbon strategies to promote low carbon cities construction in the medium and long-term 241
    Chapter 14 Suggestions for Chinese low carbon strategies 242
    14.1 The outlook for peaking carbon emissions 242
    14.1.1 Chinese carbon emissions are expected to peak by 2030 242
    14.1.2 Carbon emissions in industrial sectors will peak before 2020, and it is uncertain for the peaking in transportation 243
    14.1.3 The peaking time is basically the same in all kinds of scenarios, but the peaking amount is affected by the investment rate 243
    14.2 Challenges faced by carbon emissions peaking 244
    14.2.1 The guaranty of energy supply security will be difficult to support the rigid requirement of energy mix to peak carbon emissions 244
    14.2.2 Large-scale urbanization in the future will drive the increases of carbon emissions in 2030 245
    14.2.3 Regional imbalances will lead to the increase of carbon emissions in some regions 245
    14.2.4 Carbon emissions peaking will depend on industrial carbon emissions directly 245
    14.3 Low carbon actions before carbon emissions peaking 246
    14.3.1 A climate-friendly energy supply and consumption system should be built 246
    14.3.2 Low carbon development in some developed regions should carried out firstly and emissions per capita will peak as soon as possible 246
    14.3.3 Low carbon industries system should be established 246
    14.3.4 Low carbon city construction should be strengthened 247
    14.4 Strategies suggestion after carbon emissions peaking 247
    14.4.1 Energy supply and consumption system dominated by low carbon energy and nearly zero carbon energy should be developed 247
    14.4.2 Near zero carbon pilots should be developed 247
    14.4.3 Industries characterized by low carbon international competitiveness should be formed 247
    14.4.4 Low carbon consumption patterns in the whole society should be constructed 247
    14.5 Policy proposals for low carbon development in China 248
    14.5.1 The strategic position of low carbon development in national laws and major decisions should be defined 248
    14.5.2 Low carbon emissions should guide the construction of ecological civilization, new urban construction and other major policies 248
    14.5.3 The source emissions control policies emphasizing carbon emissions assessment for new renovation and expansion projects should be stressed 248
    14.5.4 Carbon emission management standards for high-carbon emission industries should be formulated 248
    14.5.5 Fundamental capacity building for carbon accounting system and carbon emissions trading system should be strenthened 249
    14.5.6 Scientific and technological innovation of renewable energy and new energy should be promoted deeply 249
    References 250
    Annex 256
    A-1 Near Names of sectors and corresponding codes of 2012 IO table 256
    A-2 Main energy saving technologies in iron and steel industry 256
    A-3 Main energy saving technologies in cement industry 258
    A-4 Main energy saving technologies in petrochemical industry 259
    A-5 Main energy saving technology in the construction industry 260
    A-6 Main technology in new energy and renewable energy 261
    A-7 Code and explanations of 35 industries of WIOD database 262
    Postscript 263
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