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中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告
  • 书号:9787030461421
    作者:秦大河
  • 外文书名:
  • 装帧:平装
    开本:16
  • 页数:400
    字数:590000
    语种:zh-Hans
  • 出版社:科学出版社
    出版时间:2015-12-01
  • 所属分类:
  • 定价: ¥209.00元
    售价: ¥165.11元
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为更好理解气候变化与极端天气气候事件的关系,以及气候变化所产生的与灾害风险相关的一系列问题,中国气象局联合国内多个部门,由秦大河院士任主编,组织百余位专家共同编写了本评估报告。报告借鉴了国际、国内相关评估报告的方法和思路,综合分析了天气学、气候学、气候(系统)变化科学、大气化学、地理学、水文学,以及气候变化适应和灾害风险管理等多领域成果,并在总结过去应对极端天气气候事件经验的基础上,提出未来控制灾害风险的政策和实践方向,以期增进社会各界应对气候变化与灾害风险管理的认识,为各级政府制定相关政策、企业采取行动提供科技支撑,为全社会提升灾害风险防范意识和能力提供基础信息。
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目录

  • 目录

    前言iii
    第一章极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理概述1
    执行摘要3
    1.1目的和意义4
    1.1.1极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理的概念4
    1.1.2背景5
    1.1.3目的8
    1.1.4意义9
    1.1.5主要评估内容10
    1.2评估的基础11
    1.2.1国际相关重要评估报告的核心评估结论11
    1.2.2国内相关重要评估报告的核心评估结论17
    1.2.3本报告与相关评估报告的关系20
    1.3相关理论及研究进展21
    1.3.1灾害风险理论21
    1.3.2灾害风险管理25
    1.3.3灾害风险适应27
    1.4政策与实践29
    1.4.1国际重大策略及行动29
    1.4.2其他国家相关的战略动向32
    1.4.3中国政策与实践35
    参考文献40
    第二章极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理的内涵45
    执行摘要46
    2.1气候变化与极端事件47
    2.1.1气候变化47
    2.1.2极端事件49
    2.1.3指标和方法51
    2.2灾害风险管理58
    2.2.1灾害风险管理58
    2.2.2灾害风险识别与评估61
    2.2.3政策体系与风险转移63
    2.3灾害风险管理与可持续发展66
    2.3.1灾害风险管理与适应气候变化66
    2.3.2灾害风险管理与社会经济转型69
    2.3.3灾害风险管理与可持续发展71
    参考文献76
    第三章极端天气气候事件的变化及其成因81
    执行摘要82
    3.1中国极端天气气候事件的基本特征83
    3.1.1单要素事件84
    3.1.2多要素事件94
    3.2近两千年历史时期极端天气气候事件变化104
    3.2.1极端干旱与大涝105
    3.2.2极端寒冷与高、低温108
    3.31951~2013年以来的极端天气气候事件的变化110
    3.3.1单要素事件110
    3.3.2多要素事件120
    3.4极端天气气候事件变化的成因131
    3.4.1极端天气气候事件变化的气候系统内部成因131
    3.4.2极端天气气候事件变化的归因133
    3.5挑战与展望38
    参考文献140
    第四章领域和区域影响及脆弱性151
    执行摘要152 4.1极端天气气候事件和灾害的影响153
    4.1.1影响特征153
    4.1.2社会经济损失156
    4.2极端天气气候事件和致灾影响阈值161
    4.2.1极端天气气候事件的空间分布及其变化161
    4.2.2各灾种致灾影响阈值163
    4.3承灾体的暴露度167
    4.3.1暴露度特征167
    4.3.2不同领域暴露度变化172
    4.3.3不同区域暴露度变化178
    4.4承灾体的脆弱性184
    4.4.1脆弱性特征184
    4.4.2不同领域脆弱性变化189
    4.4.3不同区域脆弱性变化198
    4.5极端天气气候事件和灾害影响综合分析203
    4.5.1暴雨洪涝影响案例203
    4.5.2干旱影响案例204
    4.5.3台风影响案例206
    4.5.4高温影响案例209
    4.5.5低温冷害影响案例210
    4.5.6雾霾影响案例212
    4.6挑战与展望213
    参考文献215
    第五章天气气候灾害风险管理与实践225
    执行摘要226
    5.1极端天气气候事件和灾害风险的国家管理体系227
    5.1.1管理体制228
    5.1.2管理机制229
    5.1.3法制建设232
    5.1.4应急预案233
    5.2综合灾害风险防范的区划、规划与实践234
    5.2.1国家和区域层面的灾害风险管理区划234
    5.2.2综合自然灾害风险防范的政策与规划239
    5.2.3国家和地方管理政策的协同241
    5.2.4综合风险防范的作用245
    5.3综合灾害风险管理在经济社会重点领域的实践和经验248
    5.3.1新风险管理249
    5.3.2水安全领域250
    5.3.3粮食安全领域252
    5.3.4生态安全领域254
    5.3.5健康安全领域255
    5.3.6能源安全领域257
    5.3.7交通安全领域258
    5.4综合防灾减灾的作用259
    5.4.1监测预警措施和成效259
    5.4.2信息管理措施的作用和成效262
    5.4.3风险管理措施的作用和成效263
    5.4.4区域和城乡基层综合防灾减灾措施的作用和成效265
    5.4.5提高综合防灾减灾社会意识和文化的作用和成效270
    5.5国际经验与合作实践272
    5.5.1国外的实践经验272
    5.5.2国际合作机制的实践277
    5.6案例分析280
    5.6.12006年重庆特大旱灾280
    5.6.22008年南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害281
    5.6.32010年“凡亚比”热带风暴284
    5.6.42012年北京“7.21”暴雨灾害287
    5.6.5综合减灾示范社区建设290
    5.7挑战与展望292
    参考文献294
    第六章灾害风险管理与适应的策略选择299
    执行摘要300
    6.1未来极端天气气候事件变化趋势和灾害风险301
    6.1.1未来气候变化背景下极端天气气候事件的变化趋势302
    6.1.2未来致灾天气/气候条件和致灾阈值的可能变化306
    6.1.3未来天气气候灾害、暴露度、脆弱性和致灾风险的变化趋势308
    6.1.4未来经济社会发展及灾害风险313
    6.2降低气候风险与保障国家总体安全的策略设计314
    6.2.1灾害风险管理与适应是气候安全的重要保障314
    6.2.2灾害风险管理与适应的机遇与挑战315
    6.2.3降低灾害风险和保障气候安全的长期应对策略317
    6.3灾害风险管理与适应气候变化的协同策略319
    6.3.1灾害风险管理与适应气候变化的协同319
    6.3.2国际与国内政策机制的协同320
    6.3.3领域协同322
    6.3.4区域协同337
    6.4提升恢复力的能力建设策略344
    6.4.1提升政策和机制创新的能力建设344
    6.4.2天气气候灾害风险防护能力建设346
    6.5综合风险治理策略348
    6.5.1有中国特色的风险治理体系348
    6.5.2社会参与机制349
    6.5.3风险分担机制351
    6.5.4协同治理机制353
    6.6挑战与展望354
    参考文献356
    附录一:常见问题360
    附录二:名词解释367
    附录三:缩略语374
    Content
    Forewordi Prefaceiii
    Chapter 1 Introductions1 Executive Summary 3
    1.1 Purpose and Significance 4
    1.1.1 Concepts of Climate Extremes and Disaster Risk Management4
    1.1.2 Background 5
    1.1.3 Purpose 8
    1.1.4 Significance 9
    1.1.5 Content of The Assessment10
    1.2 Basis of Assessment 11
    1.2.1 Key Findings of Relevant International Assessment Reports 11
    1.2.2 Key Findings of Relevant National Assessment Reports 17
    1.2.3 Relevance to Previous Assessment Reports 20
    1.3 The Related Theory and Research Progress21
    1.3.1 Disaster Risk Theory 21
    1.3.2 Disaster Risk Management 25
    1.3.3 Disaster Risk Adaptation27
    1.4 Policy and Practices 29
    1.4.1 International Key Strategies and Actions 29
    1.4.2 The Related Strategic Actions of Other Countries 32
    1.4.3 Policy, Practices, Actions and Effects in China 35
    References40
    Chapter 2 Connotation of Climate Extremes and Disasters Risk Management 45
    Executive Summary 46
    2.1 Climate Change and Climate Extremes47
    2.1.1 Climate Change47
    2.1.2 Climate Extremes 49
    2.1.3 Indices and Methods51
    2.2 Disaster Risk Management 58
    2.2.1 Disaster Risk Management 58
    2.2.2 Disaster Risk Identification and Assessment61
    2.2.3 Policy System and Risk Transfer 63
    2.3 Disaster Risk Management and Sustainable Development 66
    2.3.1 Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation 66
    2.3.2 Disaster Risk Management and Social-Economic Transformation69
    2.3.3 Disaster Risk Management and Sustainable Development71 References76
    Chapter 3 Observed Changes of Climate Extremes and Disasters and The Causes81 Executive Summary 82
    3.1 Characteristics of Climate Extremes in China83
    3.1.1 Climate Extremes of Single Factor84
    3.1.2 Climate Extremes of Multiple Factors 94
    3.2 Climate Extremes in Historical Periods (2K)104
    3.2.1 Extreme Drought and Flood 105
    3.2.2 Extreme Cold and High/Low Temperature 108
    3.3 Climate Extreme Changes in Recent 60 Years (1951-2013)110
    3.3.1 Changes of Climate Extremes of Single Factor 110
    3.3.2 Changes of Climate Extremes of Multiple Factors 120
    3.4 Causes of Climate Extremes Changes131
    3.4.1 Internal Climate System Factors of Climate Extremes Changes131
    3.4.2 Attribution of Climate Extremes Changes 133
    3.5 Challenges and Prospects138 References140
    Chapter 4 Impacts on Sectors and Regions and Their Vulnerabilities 151 Executive Summary 152
    4.1 Impacts of Climate Extremes and Hazards153
    4.1.1 Characteristics of the Impacts53
    4.1.2 Socio-economic Losses156 4.2 Climate Threshold Induced by Climate Extremes and Disasters 161
    4.2.1 Spatial Distribution of Climate Extremes and Disasters and Its Changes161
    4.2.2 Climate Threshold Induced by Multi-disasters 163
    4.3 Exposure to Disasters167
    4.3.1 Characteristics of Exposure 167
    4.3.2 Exposure by Sectors 172
    4.3.3 Exposure by Regions 178
    4.4 Vulnerability to Disasters184
    4.4.1 Characteristics of Vulnerability 184
    4.4.2 Vulnerability by Sectors189
    4.4.3 Vulnerability by Regions198
    4.5 Comprehensive Analysis on Impacts of Climate Extremes and Disasters203
    4.5.1 Case of Flood203
    4.5.2 Case of Drought 204
    4.5.3 Case of Typhoon 206 4.5.4 Case of Heat Wave209
    4.5.5 Case of Coldness 210
    4.5.6 Case of Other Disasters212
    4.6 Challenges and Prospects 213
    References215
    Chapter 5 Risk Management and Practices on Climate Disasters 225
    Executive Summary226
    5.1 National System for Risk Management on Climate Extremes and Disasters227
    5.1.1 Risk Management System 228
    5.1.2 Risk Management Mechanisms 229
    5.1.3 Risk Management Legal Institution232
    5.1.4 National Specialized Emergency Response Plan233
    Control234
    5.2.1 Disaster Risk Regionalization at National and Regional Level 234
    5.2.2 Planning and Policies for Integrated Disaster Risk Governance239
    5.2.3 Synergetic Policy Effect Management at National and Local Level 241
    5.2.4 Functions of Integrated Disaster Risk Governance 245
    5.3 Practices of Integrated Disasters Risk Management in Key Economic and Social Fields 248
    5.3.1 Emerging Risk Management249
    5.3.2 Practices for Water Security250
    5.3.3 Practices for Food Security 252
    5.3.4 Practices for Ecological Safety 254
    5.3.5 Practices for Health Security255
    5.3.6 Practices for Energy Security257
    5.3.7 Practices for Transportation Security 258
    5.4 Functions of Integrated Disasters Prevention and Reduction259
    5.4.1 Measures and Performance of Monitoring and Warning 259
    5.4.2 Functions and Performance of Integrated Information Management262
    5.4.3 Functions and Performance of Integrated Risk Management 263
    5.4.4 Functions and Performance of Integrated Disasters Prevention and Reduction in Regional Level and Rural and Urban Communities 265
    5.4.5 Disasters Prevention and Reduction of Improving Social Awareness and Culture for Integrated Disasters Prevention and Reduction 270
    5.5 International Experiences and Practices in Cooperation272
    5.5.1 Experiences and Practices in Other Countries 272
    5.5.2 Practices of International Cooperation Mechanism 277
    5.6 Case Studies280 5.6.1 Extreme Drought in Chongqing in 2006280
    5.6.2 Snow Disaster in South China in 2008281
    5.6.3 “Fanapi” Tropical Storm in 2010284
    5.6.4 “7.21” Rainstorm Disaster in Beijing in 2012287
    5.6.5 Building Demonstration Community for Integrated Disaster Reduction 290
    5.7 Challenges and Prospects 292
    References294
    Chapter 6 Strategy Choices for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation299
    Executive Summary300
    6.1 Future Changes in Climate Extremes and Disaster Risks 301
    6.1.1 Future Changes in Climate Extremes under Global Warming 302
    6.1.2 Future Changes in Hazards and Thresholds306
    6.1.3 Future Changes in Climate Disasters, Exposure, Vulnerability and Risks308 6.1.4 Future Economy and Society Development and Disaster Risks 313
    6.2 Strategic Framework on Reducing Climate Risk and Ensuring National General Security 314
    6.2.1 Safeguard of Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation for Climate Security314
    6.2.2 Opportunities and Challenges in Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation315
    6.2.3 Long-term Strategy for Reducing Disaster Risk and Ensuring Climate Security317
    6.3 Synergic Strategy for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation319 6.3.1 Synergy between Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation319
    6.3.2 Synergy between International and National Policies and Mechanism 320
    6.3.3 Sectoral Synergy 322
    6.3.4 Regional Synergy 337
    6.4 Resilience-oriented Capacity Building Strategy344
    6.4.1 Capacity Building for Improving Policy and institutional Innovation 344
    6.4.2 Capacity Building for Climate-proof Infrastructures 346
    6.5 Integrated Risk Governance Strategy 348
    6.5.1 Risk Governance Mechanism with Chinese Characteristics 348
    6.5.2 Social Participation Mechanism 349
    6.5.3 Risk Sharing Mechanism351
    6.5.4 Coordinated Governance Mechanism353
    6.6 Challenges and Prospects354 References356
    Annex I Frequently Asked Questions360
    Annex II Glossary 367
    Annex III Acronyms374
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