前言 第1章突发事件与非常规突发事件的基本理论1 1.1突发事件的基本概念1 1.1.1突发事件的定义和特征1 1.1.2与突发事件相关的外文用词4 1.1.3突发事件与相关概念的辨析6 1.2突发事件的分类与非常规突发事件8 1.2.1常规突发事件､非常规突发事件､复杂突发事件8 1.2.2紧急事件､灾难､巨灾9 1.2.3常规紧急事件､危机､重大危机11 1.2.4常规突发事件､危机型突发事件11 1.2.5常规突发事件､亚(准)非常规突发事件､非常规突发事件12 1.2.6常规突发事件､非常规突发事件13 1.2.7我国应急法规的“四类四级”与非常规突发事件14 1.2.8单一事件､联动演化事件与非常规突发事件16 1.3非常规突发事件的内涵17 1.3.1基于极端事件视角和危机视角的非常规突发事件17 1.3.2基于特性分析视角的非常规突发事件18 1.3.3基于复杂系统视角的非常规突发事件20 参考文献23 第2章突发事件应急管理与非常规突发事件识别和预控的基本理论26 2.1突发事件应急管理的基本概念26 2.1.1突发事件应急管理的定义26 2.1.2突发事件应急管理与相关概念的辨析28 2.1.3应急管理的发展趋势30 2.2突发事件应急管理模式31 2.2.1基于突发事件演化周期的应急管理过程模式31 2.2.2中国“一案三制”的拳头模式32 2.2.3突发事件综合管理模式33 2.2.4全面应急管理模式33 2.2.5公共安全体系的“三角形”模式39 2.2.6危机转化管理新模式42 2.2.7巨灾防御与应急决策综合集成模式44 2.2.8非常规突发事件应急管理的ACP模式45 2.3非常规突发事件识别和预控47 2.3.1非常规突发事件预警管理体系及识别和预控47 2.3.2非常规突发事件的识别和预控从“预测-应对”模式到“情景-应对”模式50 2.3.3基于免疫学的非常规突发事件识别和预控设想51 参考文献51 第3章免疫学与人工免疫系统56 3.1免疫与免疫学56 3.1.1免疫的含义56 3.1.2免疫学56 3.2人类免疫系统58 3.2.1免疫系统的组成58 3.2.2免疫系统的结构59 3.2.3自己与非己区分机制61 3.2.4免疫应答机制63 3.2.5克隆选择机制65 3.3人工免疫系统67 3.3.1人工免疫系统的含义67 3.3.2构建人工免疫系统的主要机制68 3.3.3人工免疫系统的隐喻原理69 参考文献72 第4章计算实验和建模方法的基本理论74 4.1社会科学计算实验74 4.1.1社会系统研究的难点及其解决方法74 4.1.2基于系统科学思想的社会科学计算实验76 4.1.3社会科学计算实验的模型结构78 4.1.4社会科学计算实验的研究范式80 4.2多智能体建模82 4.2.1多智能体的概念和基本特性82 4.2.2多智能体建模的思路和特点84 4.2.3多智能体建模的方法步骤85 4.2.4多智能体建模的仿真工具90 4.3元胞自动机建模93 4.3.1元胞自动机的产生和发展93 4.3.2元胞自动机的方法原理94 4.3.3元胞自动机的特性96 参考文献96 第5章基于免疫学的非常规突发事件识别和预控理论框架99 5.1基于免疫学的应急管理研究现状与发展趋势99 5.1.1基于免疫学理论的应急管理研究现状分析99 5.1.2基于免疫学理论的应急管理研究发展趋势102 5.2生物免疫机制对非常规突发事件应急管理的启示102 5.2.1生物免疫识别机制对非常规突发事件识别管理的启示102 5.2.2生物免疫控制机制对非常规突发事件预控管理的启示104 5.2.3生物免疫优化机制对非常规突发事件应急管理优化的启示108 5.3基于免疫学的非常规突发事件识别和预控系统构建109 5.3.1非常规突发事件识别和预控系统构建的原则109 5.3.2非常规突发事件识别和预控系统的特征110 5.3.3非常规突发事件识别和预控系统与生物免疫系统的异同点分析111 5.3.4非常规突发事件识别和预控系统与生物免疫系统之间的映射113 5.3.5基于免疫学的非常规突发事件识别和预控系统构建方法116 参考文献118 第6章非常规突发事件基因库121 6.1非常规突发事件基因研究的必要性121 6.1.1有利于完善非常规突发事件识别和预控系统121 6.1.2有利于揭示非常规突发事件免疫识别本质122 6.2非常规突发事件基因库的构建123 6.2.1非常规突发事件特质123 6.2.2非常规突发事件基因库构建的假设130 6.2.3非常规突发事件基因库构建的实现137 6.3非常规突发事件基因库的进化145 6.3.1生物免疫系统进化145 6.3.2混沌进化146 6.3.3模式进化146 6.3.4进化流程148 参考文献148 第7章基于免疫学的非常规突发事件风险识别153 7.1基于免疫学的非常规突发事件风险识别原理153 7.1.1非常规突发事件基因表达类型153 7.1.2非常规突发事件九种基因和三类演化原理153 7.1.3风险识别器抗体向非常规突发事件抗原进化原理155 7.2基于免疫学的非常规突发事件风险识别器158 7.2.1非常规突发事件风险识别模型框架158 7.2.2非常规突发事件免疫系统算法159 7.2.3非常规突发事件风险识别模型161 7.2.4非常规突发事件风险识别模拟工具164 7.2.5非常规突发事件风险识别器计算实验166 7.3基于免疫学的非常规突发事件风险识别器优化171 7.3.1风险识别器调节模式171 7.3.2风险识别器优化模型173 7.4算例174 参考文献177 第8章非常规单一突发事件演化与预控179 8.1非常规单一突发事件演化模型179 8.1.1模型设计思路179 8.1.2模型构建180 8.1.3计算实验模型构建182 8.1.4计算实验结果及其分析187 8.2基于免疫接种的非常规单一突发事件多Agent计算实验模型193 8.2.1计算实验模型设计193 8.2.2计算实验模型实现193 8.2.3计算实验结果分析195 8.3基于隔离的非常规单一突发事件多Agent计算实验模型200 8.3.1计算实验模型设计200 8.3.2计算实验模型实现200 8.3.3计算实验结果分析202 8.4基于能量释放的非常规单一突发事件多Agent计算实验模型205 8.4.1计算实验模型设计205 8.4.2计算实验模型实现206 8.4.3计算实验结果分析207 8.5多种预控方案相结合的多Agent计算实验模型212 8.5.1计算实验模型设计212 8.5.2计算实验模型实现213 8.5.3计算实验结果分析213 8.6非常规单一突发事件预控方案效果分析221 8.6.1单一方案的预控效果221 8.6.2多方案结合的预控效果223 参考文献223 第9章非常规突发事件的多次联动演化与预控225 9.1多次联动演化与二次联动演化模型225 9.1.1模型设计思路225 9.1.2二次联动演化模型构建227 9.1.3二次联动演化计算实验模型构建230 9.1.4二次联动演化计算实验结果及其分析234 9.2基于免疫接种的非常规突发事件二次联动多Agent计算实验模型239 9.2.1计算实验模型设计239 9.2.2计算实验模型实现239 9.2.3计算实验结果分析241 9.3基于隔离的非常规突发事件二次联动多Agent计算实验模型246 9.3.1计算实验模型设计246 9.3.2计算实验模型实现246 9.3.3计算实验结果分析248 参考文献257 第10章案例仿真及其情景推演259 10.1非常规突发传染病事件的SEIR￣II模型及其仿真和推演259 10.1.1国内外研究综述和研究思路259 10.1.2非常规突发传染病事件的SEIR￣II模型构建260 10.1.3仿真分析与情景模拟推演266 10.2基于能量随机分布的特大森林火灾演化与能量释放预控模型及其仿真和推演274 10.2.1国内外研究综述和研究思路274 10.2.2基于能量随机分布的特大森林火灾演化与能量释放预控模型构建276 10.2.3仿真分析与情景模拟推演281 参考文献290 Catalogue Preface Chapter1 Fundamentals of Emergency and Unconventional Crisis1 1.1 Concepts about Emergency1 1.1.1 Definition of Emergency1 1.1.2 Terms Adoptedin Emergency4 1.1.3 Comparative Analysis of Emergency-Related Terms6 1.2 Classification of Emergency and the Unconventional Crisis8 1.2.1 Routine Emergency. Unconventional Crisis. and Complex Emergency8 1.2.2 Emergency. Disaster. and Catastrophe9 1.2.3 Routine Emergency. Crisis. and Mega￣ Crisis11 1.2.4 Routine Emergency and Crisis Emergency11 1.2.5 Routine Emergency. Unconventional Emergency. and Unconventional Crisis12 1.2.6 Routine Emergency/ Disaster. Unconventional Crisis/ Catastrophe13 1.2.7 Four Types of Emergency Identifiedby China and Unconventional Crisis14 1.2.8 Single Emergency. Interactive Emergencies. and Unconventional Crisis16 1.3 Intensi on of the Unconventional Crisis17 1.3.1 Unconventional Crisis Viewedin the Context of Extreme Emergency and Crisis17 1.3.2 Unconventional Crisis Viewedin Feature Analysis18 1.3.3 Unconventional Crisis Viewedin the Context of Complex System20 References23 Chapter2 Fundamentals of Emergency Management and Unconventional Crisis Identification and Pre￣ Control26 2.1 Concepts about Emergency Management26 2.1.1 Definition of Emergency Management26 2.1.2 Comparative Analysis of Emergency Management and Related Terms28 2.1.3 Development Trend of Emergency Management30 2.2 Emergency Management Modes31 2.2.1 Emergency Resp onse Process Management Mode Takingin to Account the Evolutionary Cycle31 2.2.2 Fist Mode Based on China.s One Emergency Resp onse Plan and Three Systems( Organization. Mechanism and Law System)32 2.2.3 Integrated Emergency Management Mode33 2.2.4 All￣ Round Emergency Management Mode33 2.2.5 Triangle Mode Employedin Public Security System39 2.2.6 Crisis￣ to￣ Opportunity Conversi on Process Management Mode42 2.2.7 Integrated Management Mode Combining Catastrophe Defense and Emergency Resp onse Decisi on￣ Making44 2.2.8 A C P Mode Employedin Unconventional Crisis Management System45 2.3 Unconventional Crisis Identification and Pre￣ Control47 2.3.1 Unconventional Crisis Early Warning System and the Identification& Pre￣ Control47 2.3.2 From Prediction￣ Resp onse Mode to Scene￣ Resp onse Mode50 2.3.3 Conceit of Unconventional Crisis Identification and Pre￣ Control Based on Immunology51 References51 Chapter3 Immunology and Artificial Immune System56 3.1 Immune and Immunology56 3.1.1 Concept of Immune56 3.1.2 Immunology56 3.2 Human Immune System58 3.2.1 Composition of Immune System58 3.2.2 Structure of Immune System59 3.2.3 Self￣ and￣ N onself￣ Recognition Mechanism61 3.2.4 Immune Resp onse Mechanism63 3.2.5 Cl onal Selection Mechanism65 3.3 Artificial Immune System67 3.3.1 Intensi on of Artificial Immune System67 3.3.2 Mechanism Underlying the Artificial Immune System Development68 3.3.3 Metaphor Underlying Artificial Immune System69 References72 Chapter4 Fundamentals of Computational Experiments and Model Development74 4.1 Computational Experiments on Social Science74 4.1.1 Difficulties Inherentin Social Science Study and the Solution74 4.1.2 Computational Social Science Based on System Thinking76 4.1.3 Model Structure Adoptedin Computational Social Science78 4.1.4 Research Paradigm of Computational Social Science80 4.2 Multi￣ Agent System Development82 4.2.1 Concepts about Multi￣ Agent System82 4.2.2 Thoughts of Multi￣ Agent System Development84 4.2.3 Procedures of Multi￣ Agent System Development85 4.2.4 Simulation Tools for Multi￣ Agent System Development90 4.3 Cellular Au tomat on Model Development93 4.3.1 The Emergence and Development of Cellular Au tomat on93 4.3.2 The Theory and Procedures of Cellular Au tomat on94 4.3.3 Characteristics of Cellular Au tomat on96 References96 Chapter5 Concept Framework for Unconventional Crisis Identification and Pre￣ Control Based on Immunology99 5.1 Present Status and Development Trend of Emergency Management Study Based on Immunology99 5.1.1 Present Status of Emergency Management Study Based on Immunology99 5.1.2 The Development Trend of Emergency Management Study Based on Immunology102 5.2 Immune Mechanism for Unconventional Crisis Management102 5.2.1 Immune Identification Mechanism for Unconventional Crisis Identification102 5.2.2 Immune Mechanism for Unconventional Crisis Pre￣ Control104 5.2.3 Immune Optimization Mechanism for Unconventional Crisis Management Optimization108 5.3 Immunology￣ Based Unconventional Crisis Identification and Pre Control System Development109 5.3.1 Principles for Unconventional Crisis Identification and Pre Control System Development109 5.3.2 Characteristics of the Unconventional Crisis Identification and Pre Control System110 5.3.3 Comparative Analysis of the Unconventional Crisis Identification and Pre￣ Control and Innate Immune System111 5.3.4 Mappingbetween the Unconventional Crisis Identification and Pre￣ Control System and Innate Immune System113 5.3.5 Immunology￣ Based Unconventional Crisis Identification and Pre￣ Control System Development Procedures116 References118 Chapter6 Gene Pool of Unconventional Crisis121 6.1 Significance of Unconventional Crisis Genes Studies121 6.1.1 Perfecting the Unconventional Crisis Identification and Pre￣ Control System121 6.1.2 Revealing the Nature of Unconventional Crisis Immune Identification122 6.2 Development of the Gene Pool of Unconventional Crisis123 6.2.1 The Traits of Unconventional Crisis123 6.2.2 The Hypo thesis for the Development of the Gene Pool of Unconventional Crisis130 6.2.3 Realization of the Development of the Gene Pool of Unconventional Crisis137 6.3 Evolution of the Gene Pool of Unconventional Crisis145 6.3.1 Evolution of Innate Immune System145 6.3.2 Chaotic Evolution146 6.3.3 Pattern Evolution146 6.3.4 Evolution Process148 References148 Chapter7 Unconventional Crisis Identification Based on Immunology153 7.1 Theory about Unconventional Crisis Identification Based on Immunology153 7.1.1 Gene Expressi on of Unconventional Crisis153 7.1.2 Nine Genes of Unconventional Crisis and Three Evolution Rules153 7.1.3 Antibody Evolution of Risk Recognizer towards the Antigen of Unconventional Crisis155 7.2 Immunology￣ Based Unconventional Crisis Recognizer158 7.2.1 Model Framework of Unconventional Crisis Identification158 7.2.2 Immune Algorithm of Unconventional Crisis159 7.2.3 Model of Unconventional Crisis Identification161 7.2.4 Simulation Tool for Unconventional Crisis Identification164 7.2.5 Computational Experiments of Unconventional Crisis Recognize166 7.3 Optimization of Unconventional Crisis Recognizer Based on Immunology171 7.3.1 Regula tory Mode of Risk Recognizer171 7.3.2 Optimization Model of Risk Recognizer173 7.4 Example174 References177 Chapter8 Single Unconventional Crisis Evolution and Pre￣ Control179 8.1 Evolution Model of the Single Unconventional Crisis179 8.1.1 Model Design Ideas179 8.1.2 Model Construction180 8.1.3 Computational Model Construction182 8.1.4 Results and Analysis of Computational Experiments187 8.2 Immunization￣ Based Multi￣ Agent Computational Model of the Single Unc￣ onventional Crisis193 8.2.1 Computational Model Design193 8.2.2 Realization of the Computational Model193 8.2.3 Results and Analysis of Computational Experiments195 8.3 Isolation￣ Based Multi￣ Agent Computational Model of the Single Unconv￣entional Crisis200 8.3.1 Computational Model Design200 8.3.2 Realization of the Computational Model200 8.3.3 Results and Analysis of Computational Experiments202 8.4 Energy￣ Release￣ Based Multi￣ Agent Computational Model of the Single Unconventional Crisis205 8.4.1 Computational Model Design205 8.4.2 Realization of the Computational Model206 8.4.3 Results and Analysis of Computational Experiments207 8.5 Multi￣ Agent Computational Model Combining Several Pre￣ Control Prop￣osals212 8.5.1 Computational Model Design212 8.5.2 Realization of the Computational Model213 8.5.3 Results and Analysis of Computational Experiments213 8.6 Assessment of the Single Unconventional Crisis Pre￣ Control Proposals.221 8.6.1 The Effect of One Single Pre- Control Proposal221 8.6.2 The Effect ofa Combination of Several Pre- Control Proposals223 References223 Chapter9 Evolution and Pre￣ Control of the Unconventional Crisis￣ Crisis Interactions225 9.1 Evolution Model of the Unconventional Crisis￣ Crisis Multi￣ Interaction and Twice Interaction225 9.1.1 Model Design Ideas225 9.1.2 Model Development227 9.1.3 Computational Model Development230 9.1.4 Results and Analysis of Computational Experiments234 9.2 Immunization￣ Based Multi￣ Agent Computational Model of the Unconven￣tional Crisis￣ Crisis Twice￣ Interaction239 9.2.1 Computational Model Design239 9.2.2 Realization of the Computational Model239 9.2.3 Results and Analysis of Computational Experiments241 9.3 Isolation￣ Based Multi￣ Agent Computational Model of the Unconventional Crisis￣ Crisis Twice￣ Interaction246 9.3.1 Computational Model Design246 9.3.2 Realization of the Computational Model246 9.3.3 Results and Analysis of Computational Experiments248 References257 Chapter10 Simulation259 The SEIR II Model for Unconventional Infectious Disease Crisis and the Simulation259 10.1.1 Literature Review and Research Ideas259 10.1.2 Development of theSEIR II Model for Unconventional Infectious Disease Crisis260 10.1.3 Simulation. Analysis. and Deduction266 The Random￣ Energy￣ Based Evolution and Energy￣ Release￣ Pre￣ Control Model for Catastrophic Forest Fire and the Simulation274 10.2.1 Literature Review and Research Ideas274 10.2.2 Development of the Random￣ Energy￣ Based Evolution and Energy￣ Release￣ Pre￣ Control Model for Catastrophic Forest Fire276 10.2.3 Simulation. Analysis. and Deduction281 References290
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