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农业气象灾害风险评价、预警及管理研究
  • 书号:9787030460547
    作者:张继权 等
  • 外文书名:
  • 装帧:平装
    开本:B5
  • 页数:348
    字数:430
    语种:zh-Hans
  • 出版社:
    出版时间:2016-03-28
  • 所属分类:
  • 定价: ¥118.00元
    售价: ¥93.22元
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本书是“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目“农林气象灾害监测预警与防控关键技术研究”课题四“重大农业气象灾害风险评价与管理关键技术研究”和国家自然科学基金项目“辽西北玉米干旱灾害风险评价体系及其预警模型研究”等科研项目最新研究成果,是迄今有关农业气象灾害风险研究领域最全面和系统的一部专著。本书首先介绍了农业气象灾害风险评价、预警及管理国内外相关研究进展与发展趋势、主要研究内容与研究方案及其理论与方法;在此基础上系统介绍了农业气象灾害致灾因子危险性评价、农业气象灾害农作物脆弱性评价、农业气象灾害风险评价与风险图绘制、农业气象灾害风险预测预警研究的最新研究方法、技术与成果;最后提出了农业气象灾害综合风险管理技术对策体系。
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目录

  • 目录

    前言
    第1章绪论1
    1.1研究目的和意义1
    1.2国内外相关研究进展和展望6
    1.2.1国内农业气象灾害风险评价、预警及管理研究现状6
    1.2.2国外农业气象灾害风险评价、预警及管理研究现状9
    1.2.3农业气象灾害风险评价、预警及管理研究存在的问题13
    1.2.4农业气象灾害风险评价、预警及管理研究展望14
    1.3研究目标与研究内容15
    1.3.1研究目标15
    1.3.2研究内容15
    1.4研究方法与技术路线17
    1.5研究创新点32
    参考文献32
    第2章农业气象灾害风险评价、预警及管理理论与方法38
    2.1农业气象灾害风险评价理论基础39
    2.1.1风险与风险管理理论39
    2.1.2 区域灾害系统理论45
    2.1.3综合自然灾害风险管理理论47
    2.2农业气象灾害风险预警理论基础51
    2.3农业气象灾害风险管理理论基础52
    2.3.1农业气象灾害风险52
    2.3.2农业气象灾害风险要素的组成及相互作用53
    2.4农业气象灾害风险评价方法55
    2.4.1农业气象灾害风险概率评价法56
    2.4.2农业气象灾害风险综合评价法60
    2.4.3农业气象灾害风险情景模拟评价法62
    2.5农业气象灾害风险预警方法63
    2.5.1农业气象灾害风险预警原理63
    2.5.2农业干旱灾害风险预警体系与流程64
    2.6农业气象灾害风险管理方法65
    2.6.1农业气象灾害风险决策方法65
    2.6.2农业气象灾害风险分担与转移71
    参考文献76
    第3章农业气象灾害致灾因子危险性评价研究81
    3.1吉林省洮儿河流域农业干旱灾害致灾因子危险性评价82
    3.1.1数据处理与研究方法82
    3.1.2吉林省洮儿河流域农业干旱灾害危险性指标的确定84
    3.1.3吉林省洮儿河流域农业干旱灾害致灾因子危险性评价结果与分析84
    3.1.4结论与讨论87
    3.2吉林省东部水稻延迟型冷害致灾因子危险性评价88
    3.2.1数据处理与研究方法88
    3.2.2吉林省东部水稻延迟型冷害致灾因子危险性评价指标的确定89
    3.2.3吉林省东部水稻延迟型冷害致灾因子危险性评价结果与分析90
    3.2.4结论与讨论95
    3.3东北地区玉米不同生长阶段干旱灾害、冷害致灾因子危险性评价96
    3.3.1数据处理与研究方法96
    3.3.2东北地区玉米不同生长阶段干旱灾害、冷害致灾因子危险性指标的确定98
    3.3.3东北地区玉米不同生长阶段干旱灾害、冷害致灾因子危险性评价结果与分析99
    3.3.4结论与讨论103
    3.4气候变化背景下我国典型玉米种植区干旱灾害致灾因子危险性评价104
    3.4.1数据处理与研究方法104
    3.4.2我国典型玉米种植区干旱灾害致灾因子危险性指标的确定105
    3.4.3我国典型玉米种植区干旱灾害致灾因子危险性评价结果与分析107
    3.4.4结论与讨论115
    参考文献115
    第4章农业气象灾害农作物脆弱性评价研究117
    4.1辽西北地区玉米干旱脆弱性评价及区划119
    4.1.1数据处理与研究方法119
    4.1.2辽西北玉米干旱脆弱性评价指标体系的建立121
    4.1.3辽西北玉米干旱脆弱性评价模型的构建125
    4.1.4辽西北玉米干旱脆弱性评价及区划126
    4.1.5结论与讨论137
    4.2吉林西部玉米干旱脆弱性动态评价与区划138
    4.2.1数据处理与研究方法138
    4.2.2吉林西部玉米干旱脆弱性曲线的构建140
    4.2.3吉林西部玉米干旱脆弱性评价与区划144
    4.2.4结论与讨论149
    4.3吉林省中西部玉米涝灾脆弱性曲线构建149
    4.3.1数据处理与研究方法149
    4.3.2吉林省中西部玉米水淹胁迫试验152
    4.3.3基于田间试验的吉林省中西部玉米涝灾脆弱性曲线的构建154
    4.3.4基于CERES-Maize模型的吉林省中西部玉米涝灾脆弱性曲线的构建159
    4.3.5结论与讨论162
    参考文献162
    第5章农业气象灾害风险评价与风险图绘制研究165
    5.1辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险静态评价与风险图绘制166
    5.1.1数据处理与研究方法166
    5.1.2辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险静态评价指标体系的建立166
    5.1.3辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险静态评价模型的构建169
    5.1.4辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险静态评价与风险图绘制170
    5.1.5结论与讨论173
    5.2辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险动态评价与风险图绘制174
    5.2.1数据处理与研究方法174
    5.2.2辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险动态评价指标体系的建立179
    5.2.3辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险动态评价模型的构建180
    5.2.4辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险动态评价与风险图绘制181
    5.2.5结论与讨论183
    5.3东北地区玉米干旱、冷害风险动态评价与风险图绘制184
    5.3.1数据处理与研究方法184
    5.3.2东北地区玉米不同生长阶段干旱、冷害危险性评价186
    5.3.3东北地区玉米不同生长阶段干旱、冷害脆弱性评价193
    5.3.4东北地区玉米不同生长阶段干旱、冷害暴露性评价196
    5.3.5东北地区玉米不同生长阶段干旱、冷害防灾减灾能力评价197
    5.3.6东北地区玉米干旱、冷害风险评价与风险图绘制203
    5.3.7结论与讨论209
    5.4江淮地区农业洪涝灾害风险评价与风险图绘制211
    5.4.1数据处理与研究方法211
    5.4.2江淮地区农业洪涝灾害危险性评价212
    5.4.3江淮地区农业洪涝灾害暴露性评价214
    5.4.4江淮地区农业洪涝灾害脆弱性评价216
    5.4.5江淮地区农业洪涝灾害风险评价与风险图绘制218
    5.4.6结论与讨论221
    参考文献222
    第6章农业气象灾害风险预测预警研究224
    6.1辽宁省朝阳市玉米不同生育阶段干旱灾害风险预测225
    6.1.1数据处理与研究方法225
    6.1.2辽宁省朝阳市玉米不同生育阶段干旱灾害风险预测模型的构建227
    6.1.3辽宁省朝阳市玉米干旱灾害风险模型预测结果与分析228
    6.1.4结论与讨论229
    6.2辽西北地区玉米干旱灾害风险预警230
    6.2.1数据处理与研究方法230
    6.2.2辽西北地区玉米干旱灾害风险预警模型指标的确定231
    6.2.3辽西北地区玉米干旱灾害风险预警模型的构建231
    6.2.4辽西北地区玉米干旱灾害风险预警结果与分析232
    6.2.5结论与讨论234
    6.3辽西北地区玉米干旱灾害动态风险预警234
    6.3.1数据处理与研究方法234
    6.3.2辽西北地区玉米干旱灾害动态风险预警体系235
    6.3.3辽西北地区玉米干旱灾害动态风险评价模型的构建236
    6.3.4辽西北地区玉米干旱灾害动态风险预警的结果与分析242
    6.3.5结论与讨论251
    参考文献251
    第7章农业气象灾害综合风险管理技术对策研究253
    7.1干旱胁迫下玉米潜在产量损失率评价研究254
    7.1.1水分生产函数的构建254
    7.1.2干旱胁迫下玉米潜在产量损失率模型的建立254
    7.1.3干旱胁迫下玉米潜在产量损失率模型中关键参数的确定255
    7.1.4干旱胁迫下玉米产量形成模型的构建261
    7.1.5玉米产量形成模型中关键参数的确定263
    7.1.6结论与讨论264
    7.2基于风险区划的农业干旱灾害保险费率厘定研究265
    7.2.1数据处理与研究方法265
    7.2.2农业干旱灾害风险区划269
    7.2.3农业干旱灾害综合风险指数的验证272
    7.2.4农业干旱灾害综合风险区划的验证273
    7.2.5农业干旱灾害的保险费率厘定274
    7.2.6结论与讨论277
    7.3玉米灌溉需水量估算研究278
    7.3.1作物灌溉需水量估算的相关概念278
    7.3.2玉米生育阶段灌溉需水量估算模型的建立278
    7.3.3玉米生育阶段灌溉需水量估算模型参数的确定279
    7.3.4玉米灌溉需水量估算281
    7.3.5结论与讨论284
    7.4农业气象灾害风险管理技术与对策284
    7.4.1农业干旱灾害风险管理技术与对策284
    7.4.2农业低温灾害风险管理技术与对策294
    7.5农业气象灾害综合风险管理技术体系296
    7.5.1农业气象灾害综合风险管理的必要性296
    7.5.2农业气象灾害综合风险管理的内涵和原则298
    7.5.3农业气象灾害综合风险管理的对策和实施过程302
    7.5.4农业气象灾害综合风险管理的实施途径307
    7.5.5中国农业气象灾害综合风险管理的战略选择309
    7.6农业气象灾害风险分析与评价系统313
    7.6.1系统研制背景313
    7.6.2系统总体设计314
    7.6.3数据库设计315
    7.6.4系统实现316
    参考文献320
    彩图
    Contents
    Preliminary
    Foreword
    Chapter 1 Introduction 1
    1.1 Purpose and significance of the study 1
    1.2 Research progress and prospect at home and abroad 6
    1.2.1 Current situation of study on risk assessment,early warning and management of agro-meteorological disasters at home 6
    1.2.2 Current situation of study on risk assessment,early warning and management of agro-meteorological disasters at abroad 9
    1.2.3 The problems of study on risk assessment,early warning and management of agro-meteorological disasters 13
    1.2.4 The prospect of study on risk assessment,early warning and management of agro-meteorological disasters 14
    1.3 Study objectives and contents 15
    1.3.1 Study objectives 15
    1.3.2 Study contents 15
    1.4 Study methods and technical route 17
    1.5 The innovation of the study 32
    References 32
    Chapter 2 The theory and methods of risk assessment,early warning and management of agro-meteorological disasters 38
    2.1 The theoretical foundation of agro-meteorological disasters risk assessment 39
    2.1.1 The theory of risk and risk management 39
    2.1.2 The theory of district disaster system 45
    2.1.3 The theory of integrated disaster risk management 47
    2.2 The theoretical foundation of agro-meteorological disasters risk early warning 51
    2.3 The theoretical foundation of agro-meteorological disasters risk management 52
    2.3.1 Agro-meteorological disasters risk 52
    2.3.2 The elements and their mutual effects of agro-meteorological disasters risk 53
    2.4 Risk assessment methods of agro-meteorological disasters 55
    2.4.1 Probability risk assessment method of agro-meteorological disasters 56
    2.4.2 Integrative risk assessment approach of agro-meteorological disasters 60
    2.4.3 Scenario simulation assessment approach of agro-meteorological disasters risk 62
    2.5 The risk early warning methods of agro-meteorological disasters 63
    2.5.1 The principle of agro-meteorological disasters risk early warning 63
    2.5.2 The system and procedure of agricultural drought disaster risk early warning 64
    2.6 The risk management methods of agro-meteorological disasters 65
    2.6.1 The risk decision methods of agro-meteorological disasters 65
    2.6.2 The risk sharing and aversion of agro-meteorological disasters 71
    References 76
    Chapter 3 Study on disaster factor hazard assessment on agricultural meteorological disasters 81
    3.1 Agricultural drought disaster hazard assessment in Jilin Taoer River 82
    3.1.1 Data processing and research methods 82
    3.1.2 Agricultural drought disaster hazard indicators determine in Taoer River Basin Jilin Province 84
    3.1.3 The results and analysis of agriculture drought disaster hazard risk evaluation in Taoer River Basin,Jilin Province 84
    3.1.4 Conclusion and discussion 87
    3.2 Prolong-type rice chilling damage hazard assessment in eastern Jilin Province 88
    3.2.1 Data processing and research methods 88
    3.2.2 Prolong-type rice chilling damage hazard indicators determine in eastern Jilin Province 89
    3.2.3 The results and analysis of prolong-type rice chilling damage hazard risk evaluation in eastern Jilin Province 90
    3.2.4 Conclusion and discussion 95
    3.3 The corn drought and chilling hazard assessment at different growth stages in Northeast China 96
    3.3.1 Data processing and research methods 96
    3.3.2 Determining the hazard indicators of corn drought and chilling at different growth stages in Northeast China 98
    3.3.3 The results and analysis of corn drought and chilling hazard assessment at different growth stages in Northeast China 99
    3.3.4 Conclusion and discussion 103
    3.4 In the context of climate change drought disaster hazard assessment of the typical corn-growing regions in China 104
    3.4.1 Data processing and research methods 104
    3.4.2 The assessment indicators determine of drought disaster hazard in typical corn-growing regions 105
    3.4.3 The results and analysis of drought disaster hazard assessment in typical corn-growing regions 107
    3.4.4 Conclusion and discussion 115
    References 115
    Chapter 4 Research on crop vulnerability evaluation of agricultural meteorological disasters 117
    4.1 Vulnerability evaluation and regionalization of drought disaster risk of maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 119
    4.1.1 Data processing and research methods 119
    4.1.2 Vulnerability evaluation index system of drought disaster risk of maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 121
    4.1.3 Vulnerability evaluation model of drought disaster risk of maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 125
    4.1.4 Vulnerability evaluation and regionalization of drought disaster risk of maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 126
    4.1.5 Conclusion and discussion 137
    4.2 Vulnerability dynamic evaluation and regionalization of drought disaster risk of maize in the west of Jilin Province 138
    4.2.1 Data processing and research methods 138
    4.2.2 Vulnerability Curve of drought disaster risk of maize in the west of Jilin Province 140
    4.2.3 Vulnerability evaluation and regionalization of drought disaster risk of maize in the west of Jilin Province 144
    4.2.4 Conclusion and discussion 149
    4.3 Vulnerability Curve of flood disaster risk of maize in the middle western
    region of Jilin Province 149
    4.3.1 Data processing and research methods 149
    4.3.2 Water stress experiment of maize in the middle western region of Jilin Province 152
    4.3.3 Vulnerability Curve of flood disaster risk of maize in the middle western region of Jilin Province based on the field experiment 154
    4.3.4 Vulnerability Curve of flood disaster risk of maize on CERES-Maize model in the middle western of Jilin province 159
    4.3.5 Conclusion and discussion 162
    References 162
    Chapter 5 Risk assessment and hazard mapping of agro-meteorological disasters 165
    5.1 Static risk assessment and hazard mapping of agricultural drought disaster in Northwestern regions of Liaoning province 166
    5.1.1 Data processing and methods 166
    5.1.2 Construction of static risk assessment index system for agricultural drought disaster in Northwestern regions of Liaoning Province 166
    5.1.3 Construction of static risk assessment model for agricultural drought disaster in Northwestern regions of Liaoning Province 169
    5.1.4 Static risk assessment and hazard mapping of agricultural drought disaster in Northwestern regions of Liaoning Province 170
    5.1.5 Conclusion and discussion 173
    5.2 Dynamic risk assessment and hazard mapping of agricultural drought disaster in Northwestern regions of Liaoning Province 174
    5.2.1 Data processing and methods 174
    5.2.2 Construction of dynamic risk assessment index system for agricultural drought disaster in Northwestern regions of Liaoning Province 179
    5.2.3 Construction of dynamic risk assessment model for agricultural drought disaster in Northwestern regions of Liaoning Province 180
    5.2.4 Dynamic risk assessment and hazard mapping of agricultural drought disaster in Northwestern regions of Liaoning Province 181
    5.2.5 Conclusion and discussion 183
    5.3 Dynamic risk assessment and hazard mapping of drought disaster and chilling injury on maize in Northeast China 184
    5.3.1 Data processing and methods 184
    5.3.2 Risk characters of drought and chilling injury on maize in Northeast China 186
    5.3.3 Assessment of drought disaster and chilling injury hazard for maize in the various growth stages in Northeast China 193
    5.3.4 Assessment of drought disaster and chilling injury vulnerability for maize in the various growth stages in Northeast China 196
    5.3.5 Assessment of drought disaster and chilling injury exposure for maize in the various growth stages in Northeast China 197
    5.3.6 Assessment of drought disaster and chilling injury prevention and reduction ability for maize in the various growth stages in Northeast China 203
    5.3.7 Risk assessment and hazard mapping of drought disaster and chilling injury on maize in Northeast China 209
    5.4 Risk assessment and hazard mapping of agricultural flood and waterlogging disaster in the Yangtze-Huaihe Region 211
    5.4.1 Data processing and methods 211
    5.4.2 Assessment of agricultural flood and waterlogging disaster hazard in the Yangtze-Huaihe Region 212
    5.4.3 Assessment of agricultural flood and waterlogging disaster vulnerability in the Yangtze-Huaihe Region 214
    5.4.4 Assessment of agricultural flood and waterlogging disaster exposure in the Yangtze-Huaihe Region 216
    5.4.5 Risk assessment and hazard mapping of agricultural flood and waterlogging disaster in the Yangtze-Huaihe Region 218
    5.4.6 Conclusion and discussion 221
    Reference 222
    Chapter 6 Study on the risk forecast and early-warning of agro-meteorological disasters 224
    6.1 Prediction on drought risk for maize in different growing stages in Chaoyang City,Liaoning Province 225
    6.1.1 Data processing and methods 225
    6.1.2 The construction of the prediction model on drought risk for maize at different growing stages in Chaoyang City 227
    6.1.3 The results and analysis of the prediction model on drought risk for maize in Chaoyang City,Liaoning Province 228
    6.1.4 Conclusion and discussion 229
    6.2 The early-warning of drought risk for maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 230
    6.2.1 Data processing and methods 230
    6.2.2 The index of prediction model on drought risk for maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 231
    6.2.3 The construction of prediction model on drought risk for maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 231
    6.2.4 The results and analysis of the prediction model on drought risk for maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 232
    6.2.5 Conclusion and discussion 234
    6.3 The dynamic early-warning of drought risk for maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 234
    6.3.1 Data processing and methods 234
    6.3.2 The dynamic early-warning system of drought risk for maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 235
    6.3.3 The dynamic model evaluation of drought risk for maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 236
    6.3.4 The results and analysis of dynamic early-warning of drought risk for maize in Northwestern Liaoning Province 242
    6.3.5 Conclusion and discussion 251
    References 251
    Chapter 7 Study on comprehensive risk management technical countermeasures of agro-meteorological disasters 253
    7.1 Evaluation of the potential yield loss rate of maize under drought stress 254
    7.1.1 Construction of water production function 254
    7.1.2 Model establishment of potential yield loss rate of maize under drought stress 254
    7.1.3 Determination of key parameters in the model of potential yield loss rate of maize under drought stress 255
    7.1.4 Establishment on yield formation model of maize under drought stress 261
    7.1.5 Determination of key parameters in the yield formation model of maize 263
    7.1.6 Conclusion and discussion 264
    7.2 Premium ratemaking of agricultural drought disaster based on risk zoning 265
    7.2.1 Data processing and research methods 265
    7.2.2 Agricultural drought disaster risk zoning 269
    7.2.3 Validation of comprehensive risk index of agricultural drought disaster 272
    7.2.4 Validation of comprehensive risk zoning in agricultural drought disaster 273
    7.2.6 Conclusion and discussion 277
    7.3 Study on irrigation requirement of maize 278
    7.3.1 Relative concepts of estimating crop irrigation requirement 278
    7.3.2 Model establishment of estimating irrigation requirement in maize growing stage 278
    7.3.3 Determination of estimation model parameters of irrigation requirement in maize growing stage 279
    7.3.4 Estimation of maize irrigation requirement 281
    7.3.5 Conclusion and discussion 284
    7.4 Technical countermeasures of agro-meteorological disasters risk management 284
    7.4.1 Technology and countermeasures of agricultural drought disaster risk management 284
    7.4.2 Technology and countermeasures of agricultural low temperature drought disaster risk management 294
    7.5 Comprehensive risk management technology system of agro-meteorological disasters 296
    7.5.1 Necessity of comprehensive risk management on agro-meteorological disasters 296
    7.5.2 Connotation and principles of comprehensive risk management on agro-meteorological disasters 298
    7.5.3 Countermeasures and implementation of comprehensive risk management on agro-meteorological disasters 302
    7.5.4 Implementation approaches of comprehensive risk management on agro-meteorological disasters 307
    7.5.5 Strategic choice of comprehensive risk management on agro-meteorological disasters in China 309
    7.6 Agro-meteorological disaster risk analysis and evaluation system 313
    7.6.1 System development background 313
    7.6.2 System overall design 314
    7.6.3 Database design 315
    7.6.4 System implementation 316
    References 320
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