目录 序 前言 第1章绪论1 1.1研究目的和意义1 1.2国内外相关研究进展和展望3 1.2.1农林气象灾害监测预警与防控关键技术研究的现状与进展3 1.2.2农林气象灾害监测预警与防控关键技术研究存在的问题9 1.2.3农林气象灾害监测预警与防控关键技术研究的发展趋势与展望10 1.3研究内容和研究方案11 1.3.1研究内容11 1.3.2研究方案16 1.3.3研究创新点18 参考文献18 第2章重大农业气象灾害的立体监测与动态评估技术24 2.1灾害时空变化规律分析24 2.1.1南方双季稻低温灾害24 2.1.2西南农业(玉米)干旱36 2.1.3黄淮海冬小麦干热风41 2.2灾害的立体监测技术47 2.2.1南方双季稻低温灾害47 2.2.2西南农业(玉米)干旱67 2.2.3黄淮海冬小麦干热风76 2.3灾害的动态评估技术88 2.3.1南方双季稻低温灾害88 2.3.2西南农业(玉米)干旱103 2.3.3黄淮海冬小麦干热风110 参考文献118 第3章农业气象灾害预测预警技术123 3.1农业气象灾害的变化规律分析123 3.1.1北方干旱及干热风时空分布特征123 3.1.2南方低温冷害时空分布特征131 3.2灾害预测技术133 3.2.1北方干旱中长期预测133 3.2.2南方低温冷害中长期预测138 3.3灾害的预警技术141 3.3.1田间实验观测141 3.3.2作物生长模型介绍143 3.3.3基于遥感的区域农业干旱预警151 3.4业务平台及应用173 参考文献175 第4章干旱与低温灾害防控与管理技术183 4.1农业干旱防控关键技术183 4.1.1农田干旱防控管理应用方法指导183 4.1.2北方干旱防控综合技术186 4.1.3APSIM模型在小麦-玉米轮作体系中的模拟应用213 4.1.4抗旱减灾技术集成体系221 4.2农林低温灾害监测诊断与防控关键技术224 4.2.1物联网在低温灾害监测诊断中的应用225 4.2.2玉米低温冷害诊断及化控制剂应用232 4.2.3果树霜冻风险分析及化学调控技术239 参考文献254 第5章重大农业气象灾害风险评估与管理关键技术259 5.1农业气象灾害风险形成机理和概念框架构建260 5.2农业气象灾害风险评估与区划263 5.2.1农业气象灾害致灾因子危险性评估264 5.2.2农业气象灾害农作物脆弱性评估267 5.2.3农业气象灾害风险评估与风险图绘制279 5.2.4农业气象灾害风险预测预警285 5.3综合农业气象灾害风险评估与区划295 5.3.1东北地区玉米综合农业气象灾害风险评估与区划296 5.3.2华北地区冬小麦综合农业气象灾害风险评估与区划301 5.3.3长江中下游地区早稻综合农业气象灾害风险评估与区划302 5.3.4海南橡胶综合农业气象灾害风险评估与区划305 5.4农业气象灾害综合风险管理技术对策308 5.4.1基于风险区划的农业干旱灾害保险费率厘定309 5.4.2农业干旱灾害风险管理技术与对策311 5.4.3农业低温灾害风险管理技术与对策317 5.4.4农业气象灾害风险分析与评估系统318 5.4.5农业气象灾害综合风险管理体系322 参考文献329 第6章森林火灾风险评价与防范技术334 6.1森林可燃物调控与燃烧性335 6.1.1森林可燃物综合调控主要方法和理论335 6.1.2地表可燃物负荷量及其影响因子342 6.1.3森林可燃物燃烧性350 6.2森林火灾监测预警技术357 6.2.1卫星热点火情监测误差评估技术357 6.2.2卫星热点火情监测分级预警模型362 6.2.3森林火险预警技术371 6.3森林火灾风险评估与防范技术381 6.3.1森林火灾火险区划381 6.3.2森林火灾扑救一氧化碳危险性和安全防范388 6.3.3森林火灾扑救安全防范技术392 6.4森林火灾风险与防控系统402 6.4.1森林火环境可视化与空间显示技术402 6.4.2森林火灾扑救指挥辅助决策GIS设计与实现408 参考文献416 彩图 Contents Preliminary Foreword ChapterlIntroduction1 1.2Research progress and prospect at home and abroad3 1.2.1Current Situation of study on key technologies of monitoring and early warning, prevention for agro meteorological and forest disasters3 1.2.2The problems of study on key technologies of monitoring and early warning, prevention for agro-meteorological and forest disasters9 1.2.3The trend of development and prospect of study on key technologies of monitoring and early warning, prevention for agro-meteorological and forest disasters10 1.3.1Studycontents11 1.3.2Study program16 1.3.3The innovation points of the study.‘18 Chapter2Stereo monitoring and dynamic evaluation technology of major agri-meteorological disasters24 2.1Analysis of temporal andspatial variation of disaster24 2.1.1Double cropping rice low temperature disaster in Southern China24 2.1.2Agricultural drought (maize) Southwest China36 2.1.3Winter wheat dry hot wind in Huang-Huai-Hai area41 2.2Stereo monitoring technology of disasters . 2.2.1Double cropping rice low temperature disaster in Southern China47 2.2.2Agriculturaldrought (maize) Southwest China67 2.2.3Winter wheat dry hot wind in Huang-Huai-Hai area76 2.3Dynamic evaluation technology of disasters88 2.3.1Double cropping rice low temperature disaster in Southern China88 2.3.2Agriculturaldrought (maize) Southwest China103 2.3.3Winter wheat dry hot wind in Huang-Huai-Hai area110 Chapter3Prediction and early-warning techniques of agro-meteorological disasters123 3.1Analysis on variation of agro-meteorological disasters123 3.1.1Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of droughts and dry hot wind disaster in North China123 3.1.2Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of cold injury in South China131 3.2.1The midclle and long term prediction of drought in North China133 3.2.2The middle and long term prediction of cold injury in South China138 3.3Early-warning technique for disasters141 3.3.2Introduction of Crop Growth Simulation Model143 3.3.3Regional agricultural drought early-warning basecl on remote sensing151 Chapter4Prevention and management techniques for drought and low temperature disaster183 4.1The key prevention technique of agricultural drought183 4.1.1Guidance for the application of farmland drought prevention and management183 4.1.2Comprehensive drought prevention technique in North China186 4.1.3Application of APSIM in a wheat-maize rotation system213 4.1.4Technique integration system of drought resistance and disaster reduction221 4.2The key techniques of detection and prevention of low temperature disaster in agriculture and forestry224 4.2.1The application of the internet of things in detection and diagnosis low225 4.2.2The diagnosis cold injury in maize and the application of chemical control agent232 4.2.3The risk analysis and chemical control of fruit trees239 Chapter5Key technologies of major agro-meteorological disasters risk eaaluation and management259 5.1Formation mechanismand conceptual framework of agro-meteorological disaster risk260 5.2Agricultural meteorological disaster risk evaluation and regionalization263 5.2.1Disaster hazard evaluation of agro-meteorological disasters264 5.2.2Crop vulnerability evaluation of agro-meteorological clisasters267 5.2.3Agro-meteorological disaster risk evaluation and risk ruapping279 5.2.4The risk prediction ancl early-warning of agro-meteorological disasters285 5.3Comprehensive agricultural meteorological disaster risk evaluation and regionalization295 5.3.1Comprehensive agricultural meteorological disaster risk evaluation and regionalization of maize in Northeast China296 5.3.2Comprehensive agricultural meteorological disaster risk evaluation and regionalization of winter wheat in North China301 5.3.3Comprehensive agricultural meteorological disaster risk evaluation and regionalization of rice in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River302 5.3.4Comprehensive agricultural meteorological disaster risk evaluation and regionalization of rubber in Hainan Province305 5.4 comprehensive risk management technical countermeasures of agro-meteorological disasters308 5.4.1Premium ratemaking of agricultural drought disaster based on risk zoning 309 5.4.2Technology and countermeasures of agricultural drought disaster risk management311 5.4.3Technology and countermeasures of agricultural low temperature drought disaster risk management317 5.4.4Agro-meteorological disaster risk analysis and evaluation system318 5.4.5Comprehensive risk management system of agro-meteorological disasters322 Chapter6Technologies of forest fire risk assessment and prevention334 6.1Regulation of forest fuel and combustion335 6.1.1The theory and methods of comprehensive regulation of forest fuel335 6.1.2Surface fuel loading and relevant influence factors342 6.2Forest fire monitoring and early warning technology357 6.2.1The evaluation technology of satellite hotspot fire monitoring error357 6.2.2Satellite hotspot fire monitoring of the classification of early warning model362 6.2.3The technology of forest fire risk early-warning371 6.3Technologies of forest fire risk evaluation and prevention381 6.3.1The regionalization of forest fire risk381 6.3.2The safety precautions of forest fire hazard and fire suppression of carbon monoxide388 6.3.3Technologies of the safety precautions of forest fire suppression392 6.4Forest fire risk and control system .402 6.4.1Technologies of forest fire environment in visual and spatial display402 6.4.2Design and impleruentation of forest fire suppression and rescue system based on GIS408 References416 Color pictures
京公网安备 11010102004214号